Well... our future to reach FID from a short term (less than 12...

Well... our future to reach FID from a short term (less than 12 months) perspective is in the hands of the National Peoples Congress. It all comes down to if the new foreign investment law (to eliminate IP theft & IP transfers) gets passed or not by the NPC, largely considered China’s rubber stamp parliament for the ruling Communist Party’s policies and decisions.

The NPC Standing Commitee is made up of around 3000 delegates that represent 31 provinces, municipalities, autonomous regions as well as Hong Kong, Macau and the military. They meet at the Great Hall of the People (to the west of Tiananmen Square in Beijing) annually in March to discuss political, economic policies which involves passing select landmark legislation, approves the budget and endorses personnel nominations. The main auditorium can seat 10,000 people. Votes always follow the Communist Party’s wishes and generally pass by overwhelming majority, but delegates have in the past strayed from the party line to show frustration over issues such as corruption and crime. Parliament is unlikely to reject this new FIL (foreign investment law) as its delegates are chosen for their loyalty to the Communist Party and its agenda! The meeting usually lasts around 10 days.

The FIL has been fast tracked for approval and comes as China and the US are working to resolve a bitter trade war that has seen them level tariffs on each other’s exports. The first draft was submitted to the NPC Standing Committee on Dec 23 2018 amid intense pressure from Donald’s tariffs resulting in China’s weakening, vulnerable economy. That draft was made available to the public for comment until Feb 24 2019.

The FIL was debated for a full day on Sunday, the 10th, which may generate amendments. A revised draft of the law will pass to the whole NPC on Tuesday the 12th before being put to a final vote on Friday!!

When the FIL gets passed, Xi will meet Donald at his Mar-A-Largo resort in Florida for a historic signing summit anticipated for late March and from that moment I believe we’re back in business!

Although we would like to hope a BTA will be locked in shortly thereafter - and there’s no excuses in the interim of this trade dispute to not have a keen Chinese offtaker lined up and ready to sign on the dotted line by now - I would be bemused if we hadn’t signed up a customer by the end of the next quarter preceding the signing ceremony in Florida.

Life is all about timing - being in the right place at the right time! We can safely say that’s never been the case for us!

But our time is finally right...

Will leave you with a tidbit to ponder over, “ One interesting strength we have is actually our smaller size; some purchasers don’t want to be just a small buyer in a massive portfolio (what is 1 - 2mt to Qatar, Shell and Exxon Mobil?? Peanuts). They like that they feel important to us. “ JB’s response when probed about how our company can compete against the likes of portfolio super powers Exxon Mobil, Total, Shell and IOCs like QatarGas who have a clear advantage of being able to take FID on their balance sheets. “ I believe we can compete in this challenging market. I would not be here if I did not. We offer a highly competive price, low opex/ feed gas consumption, low emissions/CO2, and a highly reliable flexible design that has the oppourtunity to set the new global standard for both cost and performance. “

Rafael Hernandez, our Vice President of engineering & construction having spent more than 20 years with Bechtel plus having been the construction manager for Cheniere’s Sabine Pass terminal, also wouldn’t be here if he didn’t believe!

Neither would IDG...

Neither would Mr Klarman!