Nice post today Jordon, as usual mountains of research and information, which I and no doubt many holders appreciate.
Regarding the comment that most Chinese buyers are state owned and the tariffs collected by the state going back to the state, it will be interesting to see the effect of China’s big three state energy giants after their forced merger.
I know its Christmas and the clocking off clock has gone off and it’s time for Sam the Sheepdog and Ralf the Wolf to call a temporary truce, so I’ll only post a few gentle comments rather than the usual more harsh ones.
While you are referencing future LNG demand trend forecasts from Wood Mackenzie and the IEA its worth noting that over the years they've changed their forecasts nearly as often as I change my underpants, and over that time the supply glut has got worse, gas reserves in storage higher, spot prices lower and countries like China are selling cargos of gas because they have more than they need, and now is the Northern Hemisphere winter when gas demand is supposed to be at its peak!!
I agree there is good news on the LNG fuel for shipping front
You said it will be an Intriguing first half of 2020 with the following events: US listing, will DOE convert the MOU, the trade war truce and buyers ‘jumping off the fence’ to invest.
- But no mention of LNG raising the liquidity-capital it desperately needs which is without a doubt the biggest issue for the first half of 2020. I’ve never been a fan of lack of transparency or of statements that sweep important operational requirements under the carpet, even if it’s just by omitting the subject!!!!
Your comment that the ‘Donald’s administration brought China to its knees
- I hardly think China has been brought to its knees!!
- It might be worth considering too that China may not want to put its future energy security in the hands (or at the mercy of) the US, especially after how easily the US seems to place embargos on countries because the US feels those other countries aren’t holding their human rights practices up to US standards, or perhaps because they are building artificial islands off their coast! I think China is quite happy getting its gas from Australia, Qatar, and pipelines from neighbouring countries ie Countries with leaders they feel they can trust!
You say to new investors we could “see explosive returns over the next 5 - 10 years”
- We were told that over the last 5 - 10 years!! What I’d say to new investors, there’s no guarantee of a US listing anytime soon, DOE doesn’t have to commit until at least 6mtpa of 20 year binding SPA contracts have been signed and before all that, LNG needs to raise cash to continue operations.
If you want to invest in LNG all well and good, just don’t get sucked in by speculation and unrealistic projections like many before have.
There Jordon, not too harsh!! I really appreciate all your information and positivity, I just think the full story (or at least a story with a few more facts for the unsuspecting) should be presented.
So Happy Christmas mate, you’ve certainly earnt it. And so have the rest of us, whichever side of that fence!!
Kindest Regards, MoneyBags
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