LNG macro analysis, page-2412

@jkerr7999 @mrwalker

I’ve been reading some interesting comments lately by jkerr and mrwalker and I would like to thank them for their invaluable contributions over the years.

JK, in my view you have provided more information on this company and the sector than anyone else, always in a fair and balanced way, and though our opinions have differed on occasion, I applaud your sense of loyalty (previously to the company, and now to remaining stakeholders) and your efforts to salvage what remains of what was once an idea that inspired hopes and dreams.

Mrwalker, like you said in a previous post, I too added parcels to my holdings several times based on statements made by Greg Vesey over the last 4 years, the most recent being a purchase following the ASX/MEDIA RELEASE by LNGL on September 16, 2019 titled:

LNGL, DELTA OFFSHORE ENERGY AGREE ON SUPPLY DEAL TO VIETNAM

The opening sentence of the announcement read:
Delta Offshore Energy (DeltaOE) and Liquefied Natural Gas Limited (ASX: LNG; OTC ADR: LNGLY) (LNGL) jointly announce an alliance with the Bac Lieu Provincial Government in Vietnam to deliver an LNG-to-power project for the province.

The announcement went on to say:
LNGL’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Magnolia LNG LLC (Magnolia), shall deliver two million tonnes per annum (2 mtpa) of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to DeltaOE pursuant to a supply and purchase agreement (SPA), on a free-on-board (FOB) basis for a 20-year term with options to extend the term.

Followed by:
Specific terms and conditions of both the SPA and PPA, respectively, “have been negotiated” in term sheet form and the various contracting parties are “currently completing the SPA and PPA contracts for execution”

The parties shall make reasonable efforts to “complete these contracts expeditiously”

“This agreement is a “major achievement” for the Magnolia LNG project as “we progress our global commercial and marketing push toward a final investment decision”

This agreement represents a “significant advancement” of our long relationships held with DeltaOE


Following the announcement, the share price soared 30% before going into a trading halt. When queried by the ASX about whether LNG considered the market release, “to be information that a reasonable person would expect to have a material effect on the price or value of its securities”, LNG’s response was “No, LNG considered that the Information was unlikely to be information that a reasonable person would expect to have a material effect on the price or value of LNG’s securities”.


Yet in LNGL’s December 2019 Newsletter, the following is clearly stated (once again):

“Vietnam MOU brings Magnolia LNG one step closer to construction” and “Magnolia LNG looks like it is set to be ready between 2023 and 2024”


I have previously provided substantiated statements made over the last 4 years by Greg Vesey and other members of the management team and BOD, and provide some of those here again as proof that LNGL has made statements on more than a dozen occasions over the 4 years that Greg Vesey has been CEO, forecasting achieving binding offtake agreements, reaching FID and / or beginning construction by the second half of 2019.


23/12/16 ASX/MEDIA RELEASE LNG LTD
Stated LNGL was” Finalizing offtake agreement efforts”

04/01/17 ASX/MEDIA RELEASE MAGNOLIA LNG 2016 THE YEAR IN REVIEW
Stated “We will be moving to finalize firm offtake agreements in the New Year”

27/03/17 LNGL MEETING WITH PORT OF LAKE CHARLES DIRECTORS
Stated “Construction on the Magnolia facility is expected to begin later this year”

28/03/17 CHRONICLE HERALD INTERVIEW WITH JOHN BAGULEY COO
Stated “Construction of the Bear Head project could start by as early as next year”

31/03/17 LNGL INVESTOR PRESENTATION AND CONFERENCE CALL
“Forecast FID in July 2017”

14/06/17 COMMSEC’S TOM PIOTROWSKI INTERVIEW WITH GREG VESEY
Stated “Expected to “Have the whole facility contracted in the next 6 - 12months”

09/08/17 REUTERS INTERVIEW WITH GREG VESEY
Stated “The Company would likely finish selling remaining capacity at the Magnolia project by the end of 2018”

02/10/17 LNG NA GAS FORUM PRESENTATION
Stated “Confident of signing offtake agreements with credit-worthy buyers later this year or early in 2018”

30/10/17 ASX/MEDIA RELEASE SEPTEMBER 2017 QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHT
Stated “Confident of signing offtake agreements with credit-worthy buyers later this year or early in 2018”

22/12/17 HOUSTON CHRONICLE INTERVIEW WITH GREG VESEY
Stated “Talking about deals up to 25 million tons just to see who's going to sign first”

03/2018 ASX/MEDIA RELEASE MARCH QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS
Stated “There’s ‘real potential’ to get a final investment decision by the end of the year”

28/10/18 GREG VESEY / VIA TWITTER
Stated “We remain confident in our ability to reach FID whether or not China participates”

03/2019 REUTERS INTERVIEW WITH GREG VESEY
Stated “Expected to make FID in the second half of 2019”


I have also provided further substantiated statements made on six separate occasions during that time that perpetuated the above forecasts, rather than correcting them. They include but are not limited to the following:

In a 2017 Conference Call Greg Vesey stated:
“No one is horse trading” and “It’s not a matter of if; it’s a matter of when”

On 31/03/17 Greg Vesey stated:
“All three projects are in an advanced stage of development”, yet the Company’s lease on the Fisherman’s Landing site in Queensland was terminated on that day and management gave no indication to shareholders until weeks later.

Also, in March 2017 Greg Vesey stated:
The Company was “In discussions for more than three times the 8mtpa capacity of Magnolia”

In October and December 2017 Greg Vesey stated:
“Over the last quarter, our discussions with potential offtakers have increased significantly”
“We're actually having serious discussions with what amounts to three times the capacity of the facility”

In May 2018 Greg Vesey stated:
“Buyers are willing to sign 20-year deals and are no longer balking at contracts”
“Contract talks have picked up significantly” and “Expected to make that call by the end of the year”

In March 2019 Greg Vesey made the following statements:
“The interest our team experienced for Magnolia recently exceeded even our strong expectations”
“We are emboldened by the advanced engagement we have with several customers during the quarter”


I hope this information assists shareholders in any future decisions they make regarding this company including assisting you and mrwalker.