Well, 118 days left till 2018 comes to a close... I'm looking forward to Christmas!
I don't believe that if this 25% tariff materializes on US imports, we won't be able to sign Chinese customers. Yes, obviously the Chinese are "sitting on the fence" waiting for the dust to settle from this ongoing trade war but even if the tariff comes into play, Henry Hub LNG is still attractively priced considering the current Asian spot price is floating between USD$11 - $12 (InFeb 2014 Asian spot was a record $20 per mmbtu)... and by 2023/24' (possibly a year or 2 earlier), the future pricing could certainly be around that mark or greater when soaring demand is expected to outstrip supply. Jeff Currie, Goldman Sach's Global Head of Commodities Research, echoes the same sentiment by saying, " US suppliers can sell LNG into Asia at about $8 per mmbtu so even with a 25% tariff, American exporters can compete in the Chinese market". GV also stated a short while ago that ongoing negotiations are factoring the tariff possibility in-to calculations and final pricing!
Genius Charif Souki's marketing offer to the Japanese at the Gastech conference in Japan, April 2017, a fixed $8 per mmbtu over a 5yr term may well be cheap down the track. Russia can supply piped gas to Europe for $5 per mmbtu while Qatar's 23mt Brownfield expansion in the North Field can purportedly sell for $5.60 per mmbtu including transport costs... we can't beat either. A couple of media outlets in Aus released reports saying Australia could now have an advantage over the US due to this trade war... rubbish - stranded NWS gas, a shortage for our own domestic supply while 3 import terminals proposed??
Magnolia can put LNG on the water and ship for approx $7 - 7.40 (source gas US $2.90/mcf by 2023-24, tolling fee of US $2.5/mcf and transport costs of US $1-2/mcf). Add on 25% = $8.75 - $8.85. Still very reasonable!
Thought I might share interesting share volume movements leading in-to big announcements for Cheniere's Sabine Pass terminal & LNG LTD. Each number represents a 10 day trading accumulation equal to 2 weeks, not including weekends;
25/03/2013 BTA with Centrica 1.75mt - 3,240,400 shares traded on the day
40,317,300 over 10 days (= 2 weeks) prior to announcement
37,122,500 over 10 days, 20 days prior
32,329,900 over 10 days, 30 days prior
26,720,300 over 10 days, 40 days prior
29,178,702 over 10 days, 50 days prior
17/12/2012 BTA with Total 2mt - 6,356,700 shares traded on day
50,543,100 over 10 days (= 2 weeks) prior to announcement
38,285,000 0ver 10 days, 20 days prior
45,899,400 over 10 days, 30 days prior
36,496,802 over 10 days, 40 days prior
26,584,904 over 10 days, 50 days prior
27/1/2012 BTA with Kogas 3.5mt & 1/2/2012 BTA with BG 2mt - 10,970,400 shares traded on day
70,239,800 over 10 days prior to announcement
36,036,502 over 10 days, 20 days prior
23,956,000 over 8 days, 28 days prior
14/12/2011 BTA with Gail 3.5mt - 23,372,300 shares traded on day
35,509,200 over 10 days prior to announcement
20,835,300 over 4 days, 14 days prior
22/11/2011 BTA with Fenosa 3.5mt - 11,684,500 shares traded on day
47,653,700 over 10 days prior to announcement
56,023,000 over 9 days, 19 days prior
26/10/2011 BTA with BG (now Shell) 3.5mt - 32,573,600 shares traded on day
24,370,800 over 10 days prior to announcement
23,809,900 over 10 days, 20 days prior
27,522,006 over 10 days, 30 days prior
24,694,902 over 10 days, 40 days prior
LNG LTD Announcements;
23/1/2017 HOA with VGS 4mt - 16,627,866 shares traded on day
45,472,994 over 10 days prior to announcement
8,626,950 over 10 days, 20 days prior
20,701,612 over 10 days, 30 days prior
28,828,066 over 10 days, 40 days prior
23/7/2015 BTA with Meridian 2mt - 13,063,960 shares traded on day
26,675,839 over 10 days prior to announcement
28,951,746 over 10 days, 20 days prior
25,658,702 over 10 days, 30 days prior
27,339,781 over 10 days, 40 days prior
Now trading volumes with each number representing a 10 day period since Dec 29 2017;
13,541,676 Aug 20 - Aug 31
40,209,623 Aug 6 - Aug 17
31,863,540 Jul 23 - Aug 3
28,757,309 Jul 9 - Jul 20
24,180,717 Jun 25 - Jul 6
25,971,777 Jun 8 - Jun 22
13,922,278 May 25 - Jun 7
11,137,751 May 11 - May 24
14,556,325 Apr 27 - May 10
9,211,466 Apr 12 - Apr 26
7,507,394 Mar 27 - Apr 11
8,173,782 Mar 13 - Mar 26
7,142,640 Feb 27 - Mar 12
8,019,609 Feb 13 - Feb 26
21,048,736 Jan 30 - Feb 12
40,665,628 Jan 15 - Jan 29
38,101,293 Dec 29 - Jan 12
Really thought when the rolling 10 day volume hit 51,595,631 between 27 July - 9 Aug, the dream announcement we've all been waiting for had arrived... but of course, I was dreaming! Do believe though the recent uptick in trading is a reflection of how close we are to concluding a breakthrough SPA!
The jury is still out Possum on whether management can deliver... understand that view. Our "all star" team are being compensated richly for their expertise and IMO, worth every cent! The next 4 - 7 months will show you why!! The fundamentals remain strong but our unsuccessful journey so far can be put down to unfortunate timing of poor market conditions since late 2014 - we've been absolutely luckless, nothing more. When Cheniere signed a 1mt BTA with Trafigura on Jan 16 2018, the last time a US company had signed a contract before that was wayyy back on Oct 28 2015, Cheniere locking in Engie for .90mt. Cheniere have also signed 3 great deals this year and rightly so, they are an established entity. Venture Global are not... yet have signed up the same quota in customers & MTs (4) which should only be viewed as a real positive for us! Give credit to the company for reeling in IDG at a 14.1% premium from SP of AUD $.44 (unheard of in todays world) who has invaluable connections to 2nd tier players and NOCs!
Don't want time passing by to fast though right?!
JK.
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