Its always best to ignore the company's speculation on FID and...

Its always best to ignore the company's speculation on FID and adopt the thinking, " when it happens, it happens ". I've never relied upon managements projections for FID, instead focusing on statistics/ facts to guide me to my own conclusion on FID/ construction year. The company must remain optimistic for shareholders sake but feel the mistake they've made is giving investors a false illusion over the last couple of years when there was no need to! In the past, could of addressed our position (in company updates) along the lines of, " The macro environment will probably not be favourable or conducive to signing SPAs over the next couple of years (2016/17') but taking a long term view, we'll get the job done when the market brightens in hopefully 2019 at the latest. Taking that stance would of been optimistic, reassuring yet realistic and acceptable!  

Always been a staunch supporter of GV & Co throughout this epic, frustrating journey - genuine straight shooters doing their best to get to construction asap! But I will say this... there's a stark contrast in attitudes from say visionary Charif Souki, who has an assertive edge about him - " They are only 10% of the market so they can do whatever they want, they are not going to impact the global market ". He's said it before, the Chinese won't dictate our future success, we'll go out and find alternative Asian or European customers. Love this, it's reassuring & grabbing the bull by its horns! GV is a different character, not as charismatic while more serene in nature - would be welcomed though if he came out with similar dialogue to settle the jitters of concerned investors. In saying that, I'm sure we're not putting all our eggs in one basket and trying hard to lasso any willing Asian/ European buyers at the right price, portfolio traders included!

In all due respect Possum, I can sympathise with long term holders in relation to the relative silence we've had to endure throughout this drawn out mission. But your rationale behind your argument “ I continue to read deals being done in all shapes and forms yet LNG LTD is silent on all fronts in relation to anything that could propel us into becoming a major player,” is not entirely true. Outside of Venture Global surprisingly signing 5mts worth of SPAs in 2018 (are they bankable?) + 18.1mt signed with projects currently online or under construction, Cheniere & Anadarko Mozambique are the only companies to sign SPAs (1 for 1.2mt, the latter for 1.2mt) for next wave projects... LNG Canada has heavy weights behind their project with deep pockets to take a justified punt on luring buyers during the construction phase!

Shareholders certainly have the right to voice concerns and vent at management over a perceived lack of success but for the moment its still unjustified. The doubters seem to forget the great milestones/ great moves achieved by our team since GV's appointment, putting us in this strong, "shovel ready" position. 100% agree, for a company who has absolutely everything going for us we have nothing to show for it, look at it this way though, the window of opportunity has only partially opened in 2018 with 2019 touted as possibly being “ the greatest year of LNG FIDs ever ". As long as IDG hold tight, we have a cash runway through till mid 2020 - there's no need to panic yet, far from it!

Will come out all guns blazing if we’ve made zero inroads on the SPA front by March... believe I won't need to draw! There’s been lots of hype and talking the talk coming from our top brass, interesting choice of wording that can excite us as we hang on their every word. But remember... it takes 1, just 1 SPA to be locked in to trigger a domino effect (if past history suggests) then this could be all over in a couple of months! Refer to my post on 25/1/18' for understanding. Venture Global's signings are recent proof . We require a measly, minimum 4mt!



A brief account of how LNG LTD was born & addressing doubts surrounding OSMR

Firstly… the reasoning behind Maurice Brand's departure was his wish to spend more time with family in Perth. He made that statement with 2 years left on his contract in August 2015. He also knew the writing was on the wall with the arrival of the great oil crash + excessive glut which would spell dark times and a depressive environment for years to come! When 2015 rolled by with only 4 SPAs signed by US projects, 3 by Cheniere for finite amounts - Chile on 3 Aug .6mt, EDF on 21 Sep .77mt, Engie 28 Oct .9mt - and 1 by us on July 23… the heavy FID rains between 2011-15 (100.7mt sanctioned overall/ 63.6mt by the US) had dried up and a severe drought preceded. The next time a US company signed a SPA was on January 16 2018, Cheniere with Trafigura for 1mt.

It was Brand's lifelong dream to set up an LNG plant, in 1985 he formed a company called Energy Equity Corp, which was given a contract to build a small-scale LNG terminal at Alice Springs. EEC, which is now known as Energy World Corp, then got involved in power stations, building a gas-fired power station at Barcaldine in Queensland.

After leaving EEC in 2001, when an Indonesian project did not go as well as planned, Brand formed LNG LTD in 2002, which he listed in 2004 as managing director. In August 2015, Brand said its the ability of his and Paul Bridgewood's (Chief Technical Officer) OSMR technology to build LNG plants that take up about one-third the land of those the majors build, that let an unknown company from Perth put its foot on such a sweet site.

" Bigger parties may have looked at it in the past and said it was just too small " , he says. " Our whole business case is a small footprint that makes it absolutely efficient ". " There was a lot of talk about LNG and I saw a niche in the smaller end of the market: remote power, LNG for trucks, buses and trains.

With the failure of Fisherman's Landing, " Our attention focused on the US where we thought our business model might have a better chance of success ". So Brand relocated to Houston in 2015 to drive the project harder... Magnolia LNG inaugurated the Lake Charles office in February 2014.

Other views from analysts who kept tabs on the stock in & around 2015;

There is some market scepticism about LNG's OSMR technology but backers, including US infrastructure fund Stonepeak who will take on 50% of the project by investing $660M, says it is fairly simple.

Edison Investment analyst Will Forbes, says the technology is a new combination of existing, proven technologies. He says each has been shown to work.

" With the low costs that OSMR promises, we are optimistic Magnolia and Bear Head will succeed, realising value over time ", Forbes said in a recent report that said the share price could pass more than $9 by 2019.

Alembic Global Advisors analyst Robert Norfleet - " Given a challenging, weak oil price environment, we are not overly concerned about delays, yet management's credibility and inability to hit deadlines, nevertheless, is being called into question. That said, we believe the LNG LTD story remains compelling “.

OSMR has proven to work successfully! The Karratha facility in Perth is a small-scale application of the primary elements of OSMR. It is about a 10% scale project - produces 0.1 mtpa, compared to one of the modules in Magnolia that has 2 x 1.0 mtpa liquefaction units (2 mtpa per train). This small facility is an ammonia pre-cooled, single mixed refrigerant in cold boxes, so in this regard identical to Magnolia. The primary differences are on the driver side… OSMR uses gas turbines to drive the SMR compressors in combined cycle. The Karratha facility is to small to use gas turbines so the Ammonia and SMR compressors are motor driven. It has been running since around 2006. KBR, who has been involved in about 40% of the current global LNG production capacity, guarantees the production rate, energy efficiency and cost under our executed lump sum contract.


We’re one of two of the last companies who missed the first wave who are still soldiering on.

Cheniere - Founded 1983 (Sabine Pass 27mt, Corpus Christi 13.5mt)
Dominion Cove Point - Founded 1993 5.25mt
Texas LNG - Founded 1994 4mt (still seeking regulatory approval)
Kinder Morgan - Founded 1997 (Elba Island 2.5mt, Gulf 11.5mt Greenfield)
Freeport LNG - Founded 2002 15mt.
LNG LTD - Founded 2002 (Magnolia 8mt, Bear Head 8mt)
Sempre - Founded 2003 (Cameron 15mt, Port Arthur 13.5mt Greenfield)
NextDecade - Founded 2010 (Rio Grande 4.5mt) Greenfield
Venture Global - Founded 2013 (Calcasieu Pass 10mt, Plaquemines 20mt) Greenfield
Tellurian - Founded 2016 (Driftwood 27.6mt) Greenfield

The first wave of US LNG exports is typified by brownfield conversion projects, taking pre-exsisting import terminals and adding liquefaction capability and other necessary infrastructure improvements, so that they can export LNG. However, there is only a finite number of existing LNG import terminals that can and will be converted to export facilities, that number not enough to satisfy future demand – this is where the second wave comes in, dominated by greenfield projects.
Watch for Exelon's Annova LNG terminal (7mt) in Brownsville, Texas, could bolt to the front. No EPC but estimated projected cost only $1.3B, expecting FERC Authorization by July 2019. Exelon just completed the acquisition of Everett LNG facility in Everett, Massachusetts, this October and will assume ownership/ management of the facility. Everett LNG is the longest-operating LNG import facility in the country. It connects to two interstate pipeline systems, as well as a local gas utility’s distribution system and the Mystic Generating Station. Exelon purchased the facility from Engie.

We certainly were very late to the party when our focus was on Fisherman’s Landing, Pre-Filing with FERC in March 2013, receiving NTP May 2017! In comparison when we joined the race;

Sabine Pass Trains 1-4 - Pre-Filed Aug 2010 NTP Apr 2012
Freeport - Pre-Filed Jan 2011 NTP Nov 2014
Cove Point - Pre-Filed Oct 2011 NTP Sept 2014
Corpus Christi - Pre-Filed Dec 2011 NTP May 2015
Cameron - Pre-Filed Apr 2012 NTP Jun 2014
Sabine Pass Trains 5-6 - Pre-Filed Mar 2013 NTP Jun 2015
Texas LNG - Pre-Filed Dec 2015 Expected NTP Jun 13 2019

We haven't come this far to fail! GV was appointed CEO in April 2016, taking over with a tough job ahead considering the circumstances! This was never going to be a straight forward mission and as an investor, decent risk investing in a start-up company, greenfield, with proven yet unproven OSMR technology @ 2mt per train. At this point in the game though, the risk reward balance is definitely in our favour!

59 trading days left in the year.

Best wishes, let us pray!

JK.