I've done a very simple loan repayment calc in Excel to see how much AGO (no matter who's running it) has to repay each month to be debt-free by December 2017.
The answer is A$14.25 million, every month from July 2015 to December 2017.
So if we say 14 to 15mtpa then they need to be generating surplus cash at about $10/tonne. But there's your problem. They don't produce at 14 to 15mtpa between now and December 2017. Production peaks sometime in 2016 then drops away during FY17 to 10mtpa and FY18 to 6mtpa.
The ugly part is that in order to pay off their debt & interest of A$14.5m/month with the production schedule they propose in the capital raise they need to make ballpark averages of:
FY16 - A$11.40/tonne for 15 million tonnes
FY17 - A$17.10/tonne for 10 million tonnes
FY18 - A$28.50/tonne for 3 million tonnes to December 2017
Just to stay on this repayment schedule they need to have made principal and interest repayments of A$42 million for the 1st quarter - lets see what they report in a few days.
So... where's this Hartley's report saying they can pay off their debt by December 2017 ?
AGO Price at posting:
3.2¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
