Loan Calc, page-26

Redrock, you forgot about Vale's 1mt/d, plus with the devaluatiion of the real, their low grade stuff 57% that they were going to stop mining, are probably profitable at the current price, so they are likely to change their minds about stopping production if it's profitable.
Why would they stop?
What is most likely to happen as S11D ramps up it's 90mt/a of 67% IO, is that they will work out they can mix it with lower grade and produce 160mt of 62% IO, if that is profitable. Their costs are likely to be below $40/t.

AGO just cannot survive, because the conditions necessary for it, ie higher prices, will see a massive amount come out of Brazil. They are not building those 5 massive carriers for nothing, financed by the Chinese of course.

We will shortly be in the $40's/t, and AGO will be history, and even at that price, production will still be rising. The estimation is still for 170mt/a EXTRA next year, a point that escapes AGO holders.

I suspect people here will be as kind as those at CFU when I kept telling them for years the company was not going to survive. It finally went bankrupt, they lost all their money, but wanted to shoot the messenger, never acknowledge they were correct all along.