It has been remiss of me to not have posted of late. Apologies for that but rest assured I have not departed the scene... in fact these developments of late has NOT changed my mind and I have NO intention to accept MIN's offer.
NWE is still a very significant holding for me, in fact it is now my largest portfolio holding, and for that I am very, very comfortable in retaining.
Although I have not been posting of late, I have kept up to date by reading each and every post (some absolute crackers and some absolute BS). I must say how fortunate we are in sharing our knowledge and well researched opinions on HC. I for sure would feel a bit overwhelmed with what is going on, what with the spreading of fear, lies and mis-truths... it is great to know we have such passionate, knowledgeable and altruistic individuals on this forum. I for one feel encouraged to contribute where I can and am very grateful for the generous time & effort so many of our great posters go to great lengths in sharing. I know many of you feel the same.
I am of the opinion that MINs offer will fail. I would be very surprised if it reaches the 50% threshold with their current sub-par offer. Having said that, I am also not fearful that MIN could exert greater influence over NWE, if we remaining shareholders were to stay on in the minority. I am in no way concerned that MIN would sabotage or "go slow" on the development of the Greater Lockyer gas kitchen. On the contrary, they are determined and in an apparent great hurry to develop the field and get gas to market by CY24. They are getting their skates on for sure. And if they want to try and create fear by putting the screws on the remaining shareholders via capital calls for the LD development, go right ahead. I would gladly stump up $1m of my own coin to contribute to this future success story. I am sure there are many others amongst us who would be willing to contribute... think of it as the NWE GoFundMe campaign. I am fortunate to have been rewarded over the years by taking substantial calculated risks in the share mkt... happy to again do so with this one in a generation opportunity.
All this talk of risk and the fear that the next few wells could fail or we have compartmentalised field etc... well the majority of us know there is risk in this O&G game... but IMO the next level of appraisal and exploration is significantly de-risked. I took a great deal of risk putting my capital into NWE very early on in the piece (that included being in the top 10 NWEOB holders at one stage which I gladly converted) and yes I have been well rewarded (~+2,000%) but that does not mean I am ready to jump off this train. I wish to retain my exposure to the PB gas development and am very happy to keep rolling the dice. All the risks listed in the recent target statement I will happily embrace. I am firmly of the opinion we are sitting in the best land in the PB (geologically speaking) and if anything, the recent results from BPT / Mitsui yesterday, have only underscored that opinion. When BPT say they are "confident" of meeting their recent significant BP LNG commitment 3.75mt... well I am not so sure. I think they will be seriously evaluating their strategic options and I don't think we have seen the last of them from partaking in M&A activity. Nor Mitsui for that matter... and yes you can throw in Santos, Woodside etc. Worth re-iterating that STX / WGO have also attested that the Kingia / HC reservoir quality, thickness etc. gets much better the further east and south you go... and I believe NWE has much more to discover in the next round of drilling & the 3D seismic will confirm this, IMO.
Just to revisit the example Iain himself provided back in the IR webinar from Nov 2022... and remember these are Iain's/NWE numbers... 250 TJ/d at 50% domgas (@A$7) and 50% LNG (@A$20 long term netback) equates to gross sales of >A$1.1 Bn p.a. (~21% equity share to NWE $230m p.a.). Then we saw the respected IB Barrenjoey came out with their modelling and assumed the high case gas plant of 375 TJ/d production (because the MIN CFO said there is plenty more gas at Lockyer wink wink)... if that is achieved and assuming same numbers above gives $1.65bn p.a. revenue... so approx. $350m to NWE coffers. NWE will be a cashcow and the rewards will be significant hence why MIN want this little JV partner swallowed up ASAP. It's a no brainer apparently.
So while I am extremely disappointed in our board reversing their "thanks, but no thanks" recommendation, fine... OK, no problem, we as a collective of shareholders, big and small, can have a significant impact in our collective "not interested in selling" recommendation. We all know we are fully funded for this imminent epic appraisal / exploration campaign of extensive 3D seismic and multiple wells... and honestly any opportunistic predator can just bugger off.
Sorry for the long post... just wanted to put my views in print... I encourage everyone to continue posting constructive comments & research... and respectfully, don't engage with trolls... we have had such a great forum for many years... let's keep it this way.
Onwards and upwards.
Cheers
NWE Price at posting:
6.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held