logic says..., page-78

JR,

Seems I have been caught a little short on SC63 well commitment with Nido moving the goal posts without any official notices to the players and owners, so have done a little research to see what happened between the lines.

Since this announcement in May 2009 by NDO Nido Brings Forward 3D Survey on SC63where it states the SC63 commitment well is required by May 2011, we have had the Kawayan 3D seismic which started on time in Oct 2009 29/10/2009 - Kawayan 3D Seismic Survey underway in SC63 35 to 40 days to complete. and interpretation completed in July 2010.

I have assembled the following timeline which tracks the changes to the program. No official announcements were made to the changes in timline for the various SC63 commitments. Here's a list of where you can see things starting to change.

1st change: May 2010 AGM Presentation lists SC63 well commitment in sub phase 2b as between May 2011 and May 2012 (pg 20 of 53).

2nd change: August 2010 Energy Pacesetters Conference Presentation lists sub phase 2a (seismic + interpret) ends May 2012...so I guess the sub phase 2b commitment well starts June 2012 and goes to November 2012?

From the Q2 2010 Financial Report - "Planning for the program (5 well) has commenced with the tendering for long lead items for the initial wells in SC54B (Gindara), SC63 (Aboabo) and SC54A (Laawan). Subject to rig availability, the program is anticipated to commence in Q1 2011."

No mention of any extensions granted to the SC63 commitment phases in the Q1, Q2, Q3, or Q4 2010 financial reports.

From the Nido web site (link given a few times below in this post).

"The block (SC63) is currently in Sub-Phase 2, recently extended by the Philippine Department of Energy by 18 months in order to allow additional time to process and interpret the Kawayan 3D seismic survey, mature the Prospect and Lead inventory and select the first exploration wells to be drilled in the block."

Seeing as they've already selected Aboabo and ordered long lead items, either the website is out of date, or somebody should tell em "they're dreamin"!

So, 18 mth extension on the commitment well due May 2011, to November 2012...and this was not thought important enough to be the subject of an announcement!


Further info relating to the future.

September 2010 Good Oil Conference Preso - SC58 - in sub phase 3 commitment well by January 2012.

Interestingly, SC58 has already had an 18 month extension to it's sub phases with a commitment well falling due by 11 January 2012...sources Nido Website Exploration page scroll to SC58 and in presentations.

The Baylena prospect in SC58 is listed as one of the 5 well program drills...I wonder what is going to happen here JR if there are no more drilling activities planned for 2011 post Gindara as per your colleagues phone conversation with HO?!
Seems we may be due for another non-announced timeline extension!


p1K, I noticed in the fine print re Exploration (Nido website Exploration) while researching this info that the 5 well program starts in 2011, ie, with Gindara!!! (also mentioned above from a fin report).


While flipping through the preso's looking for this info, I had a thought...NDO are fond of listing their achievements on a dedicated page in their presentations...will they now start a failures page, dominated by Tindalo?


Agree with boysy et al re a CR just prior to the Gindara spud at hopefully an elevated sp level...no problem with too much money as opposed to too little! Perhaps this week they didn't have any plans...next week, next month???