Ive read many posts with people spending countless hours analysing this stock and speculating its january announcement. I like simple terms because im not as smart as many. My theory is asx price wary announcement claims uk november results are to blame for withdrawal of revised guidance. My thesis is; if the profit guidance is impacted by a single month of bad results then logically the profit guidance should not be significantly impacted. % wise not greater than 10% so to speak. This is a different story if the law firm had completely closed its doors and was not making any revenue at all. How much can one single month of bad results impact FY profit guidance within one branch of the company.
Yes cash on hand and debt may be questioned but if management announces a loss of % in single digits then i for one will trust it when they say they have $100m headroom.
As for ASIC, i can see that the way profit is calculated will be revised and changed so that WIP doesnt play a direct role but calculated/endorsed via other methods.
As for Quindell, i agree with someone else on this forum who said get over it...they may have paid a % overprice according to some but it all comes down to future potential and what they can make from it. I see opportunity here as management does have a good track record pre April 2015 of making calculated decisions. Excuse the irony.
I do have a lot invested in this stock, at a $1.10 p/s so i will watch carefully for the january announcement. I am LT so long january announcement is logical given the prior announcements / impact to FY guidance is proportionate. If i am on the ball, i can see this stock at $2.5 in the near future. Long term approach $5.
SGH Price at posting:
86.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held