@Milanese68 – 200 litres a year! Mate it seems that @jackarooz...

@Milanese68 – 200 litres a year!

Mate it seems that @jackarooz was spot on in nominating you as one of the 3 guys best suited for the wine comp. I also saw your other post on sauce, salami, prosciutto, and saw @SLOGGER ‘ s posts on Italian homemade recipes. We have some close Italian friends who are a little older (70s) and the ladies are simply phenomenal with their baking. So I’ve had a lot of Italian home made baked stuff and absolutely love the stuff. One of my fav deserts is actually Italian –tiramisu (I think it means ‘lift me up’). I love the Italian culture and love the fact that you guys are close knit and very family oriented. I’m not at all surprised that you are continuing the family tradition of wine making as that just fits in with what I said about the family oriented point earlier.

@rod63 – Yup that is me in the picture, mate. Handsome little devil, ain’t I?
Just one of my old pics from an ad from my days when I was still a struggling model

@Dr.Seuss – Saw you point on WKT. All points of @After03 (seems to be different country, closer to MNS, samples, looks good, doesn’t look like exploration kicked off) appear to be 100% correct.

Just a quick look on my part and it seems like they are highlighting the jumbo flake part. This was one of the MNS main selling point too

Both MNS and WKT seem to be Tanzanian based while TON and SYR are Mozambique based. Both are in continent of Africa obviously; I’m not sure of similarities and dissimilarities of countries.

I’ve done a detailed analysis on another Tanzanian graphite play 1.5 months back – IXR whose valuation is also somewhat comparable to WKT that you mentioned
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/analysis-imx-seems-very-undervalued.2497116/?post_id=15102820

The problem with these stocks is of course they can remain stagnant for quite some time. Interestingly based on my limited analysis of IXR, it actually seems that MNS was spun off from IXR. In IXR’s case, concerns are mainly past issues and mistakes of management. Not sure if WKT is having any similar issues. Both IXR and WKT seem to be talking about jumbo flake.

Of course, they can go completely bust too, and many explorers do. If safety is what you are looking for then TON, SYR and MNS seem some of the safer stocks likely to survive

There are so many graphite players planning to come with a lot of graphite in coming years – so no one knows the full implications
TON SYR LMB KNL MNS MOZ MTA TLG BUX LML AXE SER MRF WKT IXR

WKT and IXR would be more leveraged plays compared to MNS (Tanzanian players) in the same way MOZ and MTA would be more leveraged compared to TON in Mozambique.

My favourite in the industry is TON because IMHO it has one of the best risk-reward ratios - lowest risk for the highest reward.

Strategic importance and Takeover –


I found a lot of the strategic importance and takeover thoughts very interesting. My 2c –

1) I follow other industries and once you do deeper, you’d be surprised at how “political” so many industries are. 2 examples come to mind and IMHO fall in gold (last couple of years) and oil (last year) have as much to do with politics as anything else as they are incredibly strategic once we go deep into it

2) So could graphite become a key strategic commodity too. Of course it can
I’ve commented earlier in detail on how I believe that solar and batteries could become strategic game changing technologies of the next 15 years. If graphene R&D and the super strong tech stuff takes off, then there would be even more interest in the industry. Of course, there could be many more strategic uses that I have not yet researched.

3) If solar and batteries really catches on, then I see it even challenging the oil industry as mentioned by me earlier. I've mentioned earlier that oil is one of the most strategic commodities right now

4) Obviously if graphite fits into the battery picture, the implications are huge

5) Obviously, TON and SYR and super pits would then become tremendous strategic assets

6) I’ve commented earlier on how I feel that TON and SYR themselves could merge some years down the line if they both get into production

7) The best bet for all these companies IMHO is to keep doing what they are doing and trying their best to get into production and not just hoping for takeover

8) IMHO, Funding is the main thing all explorers need to get to production

9) IMHO, the more we just concentrate on getting to production, the more derisked we are and better the chances of takeover and at a much higher price.

10) I do agree that chances of takeover are always very likely.
Here is the very first point of my first analysis
Market capitalization of Mining Companies with gigantic reserves –
Gold – NCM 10 billion
Iron, energy, etc – BHP – 105 billion
Iron – Rio Tinto – 27 billion
Oil – Saudi Arabia – not a company but just the presence of massive oil reserves has made Saudi into a huge economy
Graphite – Syrah – 0.8 billion
Graphite – TON – 49 million…..hmmmm...no comments

Above was in March and of course, TON is now 120 million but still dirt cheap and especially if one believes that graphite could become a strategic asset
So to conclude, of course it is a great takeover target. It could take just one major purchaser (insto/country, etc) with deep pockets to change the game overnight

As @rod63 often says, it is about the end game
Cheers