Hi CB.
Perhaps we r getting a tad over optimistic here but I'll expand on ur thinking with a really basic number.
Original figures for Prudhoe from the Alaskan geos was 25 billion bbls of RECOVERABLE. Now PB mentioned that it is ESTIMATED that 2 % has migrated from the source rock.
So even if we use the somewhat conservative 25 Bbbls number that gives an oip in the source rock of 1,250,000,000,000 or 1,250 Bbbls.
Now I for one would not even contemplate that this figure would still be oip in the source rock. In fact PB quite clearly mentions leakage when referring to the various strata and over the Millenia there has been some pretty catastrophic tectonic movements on the NS, albeit slowly and most noteably, the formation of the Barrow Arch and its associated geology all the way back to the Brooke's Range, at which point there is eroded folding/faulting which would be yet another source of leakage.
But my mind keeps coming back to the recent discoveries by CP/Anadarko, Repsol, Caelus which r pushing the Alaskan geo authority numbers further and further out.
This number above to me,?puts the North Slope in SIZE context in factors of 10 as this is the scientific accuracy we r talking about here. I don't think one can really pin down numbers any closer than factors of 10 when getting up to what PB is contemplating here.
Even if we come back a factor of 10 we r still talking a MASSIVE number (and probably closer to some of the more interesting Millenia geologic developmental study numbers. Have a look at some NS Basin Petroleum System Modelling BPSM items for reference) and as PB says, all it takes is for a small % of that to be recoverable in feasibly economic parameters, and that's a lot of oil.
Again we come back to what has been said previously, the oil is there and in BIG numbers (and it's why I tend to put more faith in PB's 2.6B plus number for the HRZ), it's the matter of engineering it out of there and Ice 2v will be the very first attempt to flow the volatile fraction from the HRZ, being a volcanically affected strata which has given it some unique geologic properties. And this is where a major proportion of engineering risk comes in, although PB may beg to differ after Ice 1.
But it's the relative SIZE of the HRZ as a source reservoir of potentially the highest flowing type oil one can find in an unconventional play that has these guys champing at the bit to test their hypothesis, or is it a theory, according to PB.
The main reason I have been a dog at a bone about the size of this play is what its relative worth might b overall IF it is proven, or believed to b proven as continuous, and as Clive noted PB has done fluorescence tests on old well cores that imply continuity.
We then get on to the rather interesting response after the question was posed re the numbers they might have post the new acreage acquisition.
Again, what numbers can one contemplate as close to reality given the above?
If one was to at least take on board some of the above size argument and accept the D&M number of 1B and double it to 2B then that's a BIG number on its own. IF one was to go with PB's sizing of the HRZ sweet spot and conservatively double their 2.6B to 5.2 Bbbls, and in the context of Prudhoe Bay being just over 200,000 acres, it brings the HRZ figure much much more to light.
PB's comment to Clive that " we've got this sucker all sewn up" is an extremely interesting one to reflect upon when thinking who might be interested come a successful flow test. I now see why the importance Laz was apportioning to the flow test and how it relates back to the size of what they have.
The big question then becomes will one of those potential big entity operators think along these same lines and throw in some cash to prove up this continuity.
Feel free to adjust my factors of 10, but I think I'm in the ball park.
A bit of a final dream here.
IF companies r paying 60k per acre in the Permian, where does that put us in a success case for half our acres . But then one must be careful with the oil price and where it was when 60k was being paid in the Permian. Banks aren't quite so free with their cash post the shaler crash.
d.
Logic will get U from A to B. Imagination will take U everywhere.
(20min delay)