London Video up, page-37

Have been letting this one chug over in the old brain box Laz and decided there might be a bit of rhetorical in ur question. Am I right

Interesting use of the word "sufficiency" if the case.

My basic thoughts on this would be that it's clear that the unconventional shalers have pretty much got decline rates tied down and back reference them to a peak initial flow rate. If one assumes this is the case then IF we are looking at PB's 2.6B then for the better parts of the sweetspot the initial flow should be right up there to reflect a higher peak and higher decline profile to result in more recoverable oil.

However, and it's a big however, as most would be aware here we are not dealing with any ordinary shale.

I'm not going to go thru the figures they got for porosity/permeability/thermal maturity/over-pressure, suffice to say the results were either in line with what's been found to be required for a success case, or in some cases such as high permeability, exceptional results. Add to this the sweetspotting for volatile liquids and we MAY see something special from Ice 2V as these combining factors perhaps indicate the possibility for good to exceptional flow rates.

Now I don't think I'm being hopelessly optimistic here. Many have observed how positive PB is in most things he does Icewine and one could bring up that 2.6B number as a case in point. But he has nominated Icewine as his preferred shale play due to the above factors, and probably more accurately, the combination of these factors.

Your post mentions RECOVERABLE.

If one thinks about how this oil might flow, or be stimulated to flow, first one needs pore over-pressure to push the hydrocarbon from the pore, which has been observed from Ice 1.

We should have the advantage of the volatile phase being an additive to the push factor as well as decreasing the flow friction factor. Where they have to be careful here is that they don't let the reservoir pressure drop too quickly otherwise the volatile phase could condense to liquid to soon and thereby negate the advantage the volatility factor gives them in terms of reducing the flow friction.

The efficiency of the hydrocarbons move THRU the rock is determined by the permeability, or connecting spaces between the pores. Again, as we know the figures for the HRZ were good, if not impressive in some zones.

All in all one can see the POTENTIAL for the HRZ to flow very well. But there is also the potential for a high RATE OF RECOVERABILITY from the HRZ due to the combination of these Achilles factors.

Imo PB is of the belief that given HRZ continuity throughout the sweetspot, which he has apparently reduced risk on with the fluorescence tests of old well cores, and given the correct use of frack engineering and the capability to maximise recoveries with the potentially good/excellent flow rate he has placed such a high recoverability on this acreage.

As has been mentioned, If these guys really wanted to they could get another independent to reappraise the DMac figure who understands this geology better. But then it may well be that with the successful US placement to fund Ice 2v that these figures have done their job anyway and the presence of PB on this shindig was probably enough to get the US cash in the coffers.

Ultimately, as another poster said, how much oil do we need !!!

If it flows, and flows efficiently then this will drive down production costs yet again and wasn't this what DW stated re the production wells. Get them flowing well and the rest follows.

d.

Logic will get U from A to B, imagination will take U everywhere.