Club, firstly let me state I know sweet nothing about T/A. You're 150 MA mentioned further makes sense.
However, I ask, if you were to draw the red line, you drew from top to top of Sep 08, and extend, the extension would be just below today's level, meaning a couple more weeks and then downwards again.
My reasoning for this is that often (even your (relatively) short term chart shows), a rally on low volume extends from July 4 to end of August -- Labour Day, whilst the majority of THE BIG BOYS are on summer hols. Then, on their return, they look as to what is happening and apply THEIR correction, if necessary.
And in opinion the DOW on any form of PE is too high.
What you later say about quantity of money is correct, BUT, 1. Benny said this week QE won't be extended past current application. 2. Pressure from overseas (read China) being exerted to stop further QE.
In other words, whilst nearly fully committed ATM, I'm very ready to run, and fast. In fact I started buying a few puts (NWS) a couple of days ago.
