Just for fun I thought I’d throw up a long-term chart. Over the...

Just for fun I thought I’d throw up a long-term chart.

Over the past 26 years of data that I have access to as shown, can you see any patterns? LYC’s had four major peaks followed by steep declines. The first three declines from 1987, 1994 and 2008 fell an average of 95.3%. So far the decline from the 2011 high has been 80% and still trending down. Can history repeat a third time?

OK , we’re a different company now and commencing production. Certainly you can see from the volume along the bottom that there’s a lot more interest in the stock in this cycle and so maybe it won’t complete the same decline. But I found it interesting nevertheless. Wonder what the Hot Copper threads were saying at the 80% level of the previous declines!

A 95.3% decline from the last $2.70 peak would take it to 12.6 cents. That’s a bit hard to believe, but that $0.40 support level marked looks pretty interesting on a long-term view. The $0.60 level also seems to have some relevance and it bounced there after the 1994 peak before heading lower again over a number of years.

The other interesting observation from the chart is that Lynas runs on big trends both up and down. So there’s no worry about missing out or any need to try and trim small margins using hourly charts. I’ll be letting it fall and then waiting for it to turn and clearly establish a new up-trend, before taking a comfortable seat for the long ride up. There’ll be plenty of profit left once the new trend gets underway.