long term chart, page-9

Thanks all for your comments on the chart. It helps me think about it. I found the long view fascinating both in the consistent volatility and trend patterns of the stock but also the 20 cent price intervals marked.

These price intervals provide a surprisingly neat structure to the price movements. Take for example the $1.20 level, it’s easy see it had relevance in each of the four peak to trough cycles as support or resistance and was a reversal point for a number of the months. Yet the fundamentals changed completely for each cycle as the business moved from gold to rare earths and the shares on issue and volume changed completely over the period.

Whether that’s because of traders referencing past prices to set current prices or just human nature to settle the price at round numbers or something, it suggests the price levels aren’t random or well aligned to fundamental valuations and that they can provide a framework guide for future price action.

To Tipster, I appreciate your comment and what you are trying to say, but I think a lot of investors are relying on the volatility of the stock increasing even more rather than moderating as you suggest. The chart shows that the biggest rise from trough to peak was Mar 09 to Apr 11, being 2 years. We haven’t confirmed the trough yet, so breaking the last high of $2.70 will be more than 2 years away unless the volatility increases. I tend to agree it will become more stable as cash-flow starts and so this has time implications for the $2.70+ parties.

The other thing I find interesting is the reaction to this chart. I shared it because I thought the LYC forum had become quite boring for a while and thought it would generate a lot of worthwhile discussion.

As it turns out the thread generated 7 replies. Yet a low content thread called “lyc could break 70 cents today” containing nothing that will help you with your investment dominated this morning’s discussion with 29 posts. Another thread called “Yawn” dominated the afternoon with 24 posts. Go figure!?

I sometimes make the mistake of thinking the LYC forum is a place for traders and investors to share and test analysis of their stocks. Instead I think it’s more of a social outlet, where people really just want to interact with banter and gossip and argue with each other with Lynas as a loose theme to have something to talk around. That’s ok, there’s no right or wrong, it’s just an observation.