Long Term Future of Santos, page-136

For those wondering as nobody replied I did a bit of Google searching and this is from the CEO. Unsure if its still relevant today but at face value the cost of break even is $29 POO

“Our strategy has been to establish a disciplined low-cost operating model that delivers strong cash flows through the oil price cycle. Our 2019 forecast free cash flow breakeven oil price is now ~US$29 per barrel,” Mr Gallagher said.
https://www.santos.com/news/santos-upgrades-2025-production-target-to-120-mmboe/

Said in Dec 2019

So I'm unclear where the worry about WPL and Santos, Exxon and others comes from when at these prices the companies are clearly making money and will continue to do so. Nobody thinks Oil below 50 is a reasonable price (because its not). I believe the Saudi's have a fair value target of around 70 dollars.

Long story short Oil cannot exist at $50 dollars with the way various OPEC countries + Russia are structured. I forget whom but a few of the majors (Saudi Arabia specifically I think) *must* have POO north of $70 a barrel in order to make the budget balance. Beneath that figure and they are losing money.

So for Oil to be long term $50 is impossible unless enormous structural reform is undertaken to lower the cost of production. Which I'm sure many are doing that and have been doing that but its still a simple truth that many Oil production countries have a Cost of Production thats north of 60 dollars.

Therefore I don't see how analysts of any kind can come to the conclusion that 50 dollar oil is somehow here to stay. In much the same way that 100+ dollar oil was never here to stay either. My assumption is 60-70 dollars is roughly where Oil will float around over the average because countries can't have a budget with oil being beneath 50 dollars.

Therefore they won't invest in more production, they will cut output etc until the price is where its supposed to be. Its taken longer than some of us might have liked but I would wager we are towards the end of the "low oil" cycle simply because its been going on for quite a while now.
If not for COVID you'd have to assume Oil would be at $70-80 dollars by now. Wouldn't be surprised if we reach $60 by middle year.