Originally posted by Feral54:
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The figures by independent experts that determine the P50 are conservative both in volume and recovery factor.The reality appears that we are exceeding that substantially for volume and may well come in with a higher API which makes a dramatic difference to the RF. Hateful 8 has just produced a back of envelope value of 40c on the other thread using an in ground value $10pb, I note VOGC uses $25 in ground . H8 uses SOI in his calculations not fully diluted. Most valuations are understandably done on P50 . I know I bang on about it but we need the upper sheet resource upgrade because I believe it is going to blow the P50 out of the water. Until we have more data all is speculation and as H8 notes, it’s all very well coming up with an NPV but the SP would be expected to be at some discount to that until flow testing etc. Again, more data. On the other side the market may push the SP along on speculation about the COS for the rest of the tenement. As to comparisons with other oilers, that is not overly meaningful because this is onshore and close to facilities like refinerys, ports, roads etc so COP will be extraordinarily low. Until we have a lot more data all efforts at valuations is effectively pointless, fortunately we have VOGC who will update us on NPV when he can. For now he doesn’t say much as it is all too speculative and then we need to see how the market responds. So I think the bottle O and waiting is the only alternative we have for now. I suffer this existential struggle between frustration and sensibility , so far I haven’t rung up and vented re the upper sheet discovery resource upgrade. The geo report about serendipitous finds is titillating.
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Congratulation boys and girls it looks as if we have one. This is looking better and better everyday it's been a long time and a long way but these are impressive numbers. Congratulation, I just hope I can ride this girl to the end, this is sellable oil and gas
