Ux Consulting Releases Forecasts For Global Nuclear Power And Uranium Fuel Requirements Report forecasts worldwide nuclear reactor growth through 2030
- By Abby Gessner -
The Ux Consulting Company, LLC (UxC), one of the nuclear industry’s leading provider of information services, announces the release of its latest Nuclear Power Outlook (NPO), which forecasts worldwide nuclear reactor growth through 2030. In addition, UxC is pleased to introduce its latest nuclear fuel requirements forecasts through 2030 created with its new, proprietary UxC Requirements Model (URM).
Since 2007, UxC has presented its unique nuclear power forecasts in the NPO, using detailed research and analysis to generate bottom-up, country-by-country reactor estimates. As a result of UxC’s recent efforts to comprehensively analyze nuclear power prospects in China, India and Russia our new global forecasts indicate dramatic growth in the use of nuclear power in these and other parts of the world over the coming two decades. Specifically, our Base case 2009 Q3 NPO forecasts show:
435 reactors totaling 370 gigawatts-electric (GWe) operating in 31 countries today 55 reactors currently under construction in 12 countries By 2015: 492 reactors totaling 428 GWe in 31 countries By 2020: 568 reactors totaling 517 GWe in 42 countries By 2030: 697 reactors totaling 702 GWe in 52 countries In addition, we also analyze alternative High and Low cases, which are presented in detail in the NPO. Our High case shows 560 GWe by 2020 and 860 GWe by 2030. Even under conditions unfavorable to new nuclear build, we still anticipate growth in global nuclear power, leading to a Low case total of 450 GWe by 2020 and 530 GWe by 2030.
There is much hard evidence that leads us to these nuclear power growth forecasts, but none of them is more convincing than the dramatic reactor construction program underway in China and other parts of Asia. Overall, nuclear power in Asia is expected to grow 110% by 2020 over 2008 levels. Asia is expected to become the largest region for nuclear power as it surpasses North America in 2015.
Based on the latest NPO forecasts, UxC has developed new scenarios to forecast trends in nuclear fuel requirements to 2030. The UxC Requirements Model (URM) employs a unique approach to calculate requirements for uranium, conversion, enrichment, and fabrication. The results of our latest uranium (U3O8) fuel demand forecasts are presented in UxC’s Q3 Uranium Market Outlook (UMO) report.
The Q3 UMO shows that global U3O8 demand is likely to grow in our Base case from the current annual level of 183 million pounds (lbs) to 250 million lbs in 2020 and 325 million lbs by 2030. This represents a 78% growth in uranium demand over the next 20 years and portends a critical need for increased global uranium production given the fact that primary mine production in 2008 totaled only 114 million lbs with the remainder supplied through inventories and secondary sources. The impacts of this rapid rise in global demand are likely to be felt in various ways in the uranium market, including influences on future price trends. Moreover, UxC’s increased requirements forecasts for uranium are mirrored in the other fuel component sectors of conversion, enrichment, and fabrication, and will impact the future level of investments in these parts of the nuclear fuel supply chain as well.
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