As I write this LYC is at 1.82. Things are looking dire and unfortunately, I didn't get out early. But there are positive ways to look at this.
Looking back at the depression and previous recessions, PE ratios for the market fell to 5. Then we must take out the Lynas Basket excel sheet posted here a while back.
If we assume this PE ratio, RE prices would have to drop to $107 this financial year, $62 the next and $38 in 2013-14 for the share price to remain at ~1.85.
Some people may look back at RE prices of $10 a few years ago but the situation is vastly different now due to China seriously restricting exports, and moving to restrict it further almost every week recently.
So unless we see a new depression (likely) and RE prices fall 80% (unlikely IMO), LYC should be a good performer over the next few years. If prices only halve, then it should be almost $6 in 2013-14.
Also keep in mind that during past depressions/recessions, the PE ratio did not stay at 5 for very long. It soon went up to ~10. If we allow for a basket price of $35 then LYC should be at $3.30 in 2013-14. All this suggests that it may be a good performer in the likely crisis to come.
HodHold on to your hats!
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- long term outlook assuming gfc2
As I write this LYC is at 1.82. Things are looking dire and...
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 2 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add LYC (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
$6.05 |
Change
-0.010(0.17%) |
Mkt cap ! $5.655B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$6.05 | $6.08 | $6.03 | $35.68M | 5.875M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 34152 | $6.05 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$6.06 | 9172 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 11681 | 6.050 |
4 | 21780 | 6.040 |
4 | 44092 | 6.030 |
6 | 41310 | 6.020 |
2 | 13026 | 6.010 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
6.060 | 1000 | 1 |
6.080 | 8714 | 4 |
6.090 | 19683 | 3 |
6.100 | 25192 | 5 |
6.110 | 22661 | 4 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 20/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
LYC (ASX) Chart |
The Watchlist
HAR
HARANGA RESOURCES LIMITED.
Peter Batten, MD
Peter Batten
MD
Previous Video
Next Video
SPONSORED BY The Market Online