long term thoughts...

...draw your own conclusions.

I have been wondering when a "buy and hold" strategy may start to make sense again, especially since just about everyone (including traditional long-only funds) seem to be espousing short term trading, while retail investors have largely deserted the market (or not returned to it). We seem to be near a lower trend line on a lot of charts, so either this is a great long term buying opportunity for a continuation of long term trend, or the trend has changed.


XJO monthly, the blue trend channel represents a gradient of approximately 6% p.a. compounded start to finish (though not drawn on a log scale)



XSO gave back nearly 100% during 2008. You can imagine the state of some of the microcaps that don't even qualify for this. Long term trend is at lower gradient (perhaps because the better performing stocks get promoted from, and losers get demoted to this index?).



XAO 30 years - log scale: close to leaving the long term bull channel of the last 30 or so years. It has only left this on a couple brief emotional extremes since "the death of equities" was proclaimed.



XAO vs SPX
Neck and neck after all this time. On monthly time frame volatility is declining and price trending less strongly (indicators for XJO). Suggests calmer, sideways action?(yawn)...