long term trends, page-2

Neil,

Looks like a good read, I will print this one up I think. BTW they note 35 years as the change point (circa 1970) and this is in keeping with other data I have seen.

What happened in 1970? Zoning laws changed, that's what!

We went from a free-er zoning doctrine which encouraged development, to a more restrictive and uniform zoning mindset which is alive and well today. Every Australian city is singing from this same song book.

The idea of totally planning where people should live and build rather than letting them have more say was the turning point. Urban growth boundaries sounded great in theory but in practise they have created the situation we see ourselves in today.

What would have happened if this planning and zoning idealogy had not been adopted? Well there is a wonderful comparison between four cities, some American, some Australian in this document:

http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf

Go to page 16 "Demand, Supply and Housing Affordability: A Tale of Four Markets"

Fascinating stuff which brings home to me how restriction of supply has made property investors wealthier but at the expense of affordability for the next generation.

The question now is how can things change? It is very complex and I cannot see change coming easily or quickly and this is why I am confident that prices will continue to rise.

I will take advantage of it but I am not entirely happy to be able to do so because I think it will lead to a more divided, less egalitarian, society.

I am not enough of an idealogue or iconoclast to ignore opportunity. I ease my conscience by telling myself that I cannot change the world, I can only do the best I can for my own family.