long term uranium spot price

The supply-demand differential in uranium is well-documented and we see long-term average prices at around $80.

PRICE MAY FALL FURTHER:
Uranium spot price continues to sink – now $90 a pound

Despite a substantial supply deficit, the uranium spot price has continued to fall – down by a third from its earlier peak.

Reuters Singapore by Nick Trevethan (08/21/07)

Spot uranium prices fell below $100 a pound this week for the first time since April, as speculative interest in the metal, used to fuel most of the world's nuclear reactors, dried up.

And prices were expected to ease further, analysts said.

Spot uranium, according to UX Consulting, a leading supplier of uranium prices, fell to $90 a pound this week, down from $105 in a previous auction and off by one third from a peak of $136 a pound in late June.

"Since the beginning of August, the financial world has changed and markets are pricing risk far more aggressively than in the past," Paul Carter at Argonaut Securities in Perth said.

Investor confidence has fractured over the past month or two after chaos in international credit markets spilled over into equities and then other asset classes.

Sentiment is slowly recovering after the U.S. Federal Reserve sought to calm markets by slashing a key U.S. bank lending rate last week, but concerns about a global credit shortage and risk aversion linger.

"The falls that we have seen are related to speculators who have invested and are looking to take profits," ANZ analyst Andrew Harrington said. "I see more falls to come with prices resting at around $70 until a clearer view about supply and demand emerges," Harrington said.

Spot uranium has soared from just $7 in 2000 on a revival in interest in nuclear energy due to high oil prices and global efforts to cut carbon dioxide emissions.

"The supply-demand differential in uranium is well-documented and we see long-term average prices at around $80," Carter said.

"The market will be in deficit until 2012 to 2013 and that may get pushed further out as mine construction schedules slip."

► Uranium demand runs at roughly 80,000 tonnes per year, while mined output is about 60,000 tonnes, leaving a shortfall of around 20,000 tonnes, which has been met by reusing highly-enriched material from decommissioned nuclear warheads.

► As of July, there were 438 nuclear reactors operating around the world, with a further 32 reactors under construction and 288 planned or proposed, according to the World Nuclear Association.

China and India are leading the worldwide expansion in nuclear energy capacity, and new capacity is also on the cards in the United States, Europe, Russia and other parts of Asia.

► Reactors typically require a first fill of around 600 tonnes of uranium and then consume around 200 tonnes per year.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page38?oid=25457&sn=Detail

438 Reactors x 200tpa = 87,600tpa = 193M lb/tpa
438+32=470 Reactors x 200tpa = 94,000tpa = 207M lb/tpa
288 Planned Reactors x 200tpa = 57,600tpa
Could be a total of 151,600tpa

► Production from U-Mines is 55% in 06/07 = 48,180tpa
► @ 438 reactors 39,420tpa/equivalent has to come from elsewhere;
ex-military stockpiles = 10,600tpa/equivalent

Overall, the blending down of 500 tonnes of Russian weapons HEU will result in about 15,000 tonnes of LEU over 20 years.
This is equivalent to about 153,000 tonnes of natural U, or just over twice annual world demand.