"Nvidia bought ARM Holdings for USD $40B with about $2B annual...

First 50 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
cyberworks

2,397 Posts.

1903

16/01/22

14:49

Post #: 58898481
Share

Originally posted by steve10: ↑

Nvidia bought ARM Holdings for USD $40B with about $2B annual revenue = x20 multiple. Mature business. Any takeover after 10 years will be at this multiple.

Square bought APT for AUD $39B with about $0.925B annual revenue = x42 multiple. New business. Any takeover next 5 years will be at this higher multiple. Not a like for like semiconductor comparison but an ASX tech/growth comparison.

AI Chip Market to Reach $194.9 Bn Globally by 2030 at 37.4% CAGR
PRNEWSWIRE2 days ago0

Rise in need for smart homes & smart cities, advent of quantum computing, and surge in investments in AI startups drive the growth of the global artificial intelligence chip market.
https://www.martechcube.com/ai-chip-market-to-reach-194-9-bn-globally-by-2030-at-37-4-cagr/

The size of the pie will be enormous by 2030. USD $195B = $270B AUD.

Every 1% of the pie equates to AUD $2.7B. There was a pie chart (sorry cannot find it now) that showed BRN would have 15-20% market share.

15% = AUD $40.5B & 20% = AUD $54B by 2030.

AUD $40B x 20 = AUD $800B MC & AUD $54B x 20 = AUD $1.08T MC.

BRN will need to be listed on Nasday & may become the Tesla of AI Chips. EV & AI will both be in high demand.

Atlassian already USD $75B MC = AUD $104B on Nasdaq after 4 years & they don't have revolutionary technology like BRN. They have AUD $2.9B revenue = x35.9 multiple.

AUD $50B MC = AUD $29.17 SP & AUD $100B = AUD $58.34. These are lower end estimates of BRN potential by 2030.

AUD $500B MC = AUD $291.67 SP & AUD $1T MC = $583.34 SP. These are higher end estimates of BRN potential by 2030 should it become the Tesla of AI chips.

Conservative forecast is AUD $100B MC by 2030 listed on Nasdaq. AUD $100B / 36 similar to Atlassian will require AUD $2.78B revenue equating to 1% market share.

I will not be selling my shares under $50 each.

Expand

"Nvidia bought ARM Holdings for USD $40B with about $2B annual revenue = x20 multiple. Mature business. Any takeover after 10 years will be at this multiple."

I hope not Steve.
I personally hope Nvidia give up on it's plans for this acquisition in the face of increasing regulatory problems that are stacking up.
I hear this acquisition is more like $75B currently. If it goes ahead, it'll be the biggest in semiconductor acquisition history.
Right now Nvidia already has a strangle hold on the whole global landscape of GPU's in motor cars and data centers. Two much power in this space.
Many industry experts worry that a Nvidia purchase from Softbank will bring to an end ARM's open licensing model.

“The FTC is suing to block the largest semiconductor chip merger in history to prevent a chip conglomerate from stifling the innovation pipeline for next-generation technologies,” said Holly Vedova, bureau of competition director at the FTC.“This proposed deal would distort Arm’s incentives in chip markets and allow the combined firm to unfairly undermine Nvidia’s rivals.”

I certainly don't see any positives in this acquisition for BrainChip.
So I'm sitting here, pop corn in hand, watching and hoping this turns into a slow motion train wreck for Nvidia.

$75bn takeover of chip designer Arm by rival Nvidia in jeopardy | Arm | The Guardian

Cheers
Cyber

Last edited by cyberworks: 16/01/22

BRN Price at posting: $1.50 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
35 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply