You have summed it up nicely, a break through the $1.40 level on strength will see the short term down trend broken and form a very strong uptrend slope.
The down trend is almost out of puff all it will take is a signal of confidence and it will take off back toward the $2 level.
I previously stated the 1.25-1.35 level will hold and that is looking increasingly likely IMO.
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