I've been a bull on fertilizer since December, when yellowcake...

I've been a bull on fertilizer since December, when yellowcake was seemingly talking to himself on here and everyone else was on holiday.

Here is my view on Rock Phosphate:
- the global supply infrastructure for fertilizer is woefully inadequate...new projects such as Saudi Arabia will bring a bit more DAP to market (using most of the newly mined RP) but will only come on/stream in 2010.
- morocco and tunisia are enjoying their dominant supplier status and are looking to keep prices high. hand shakes between india and morocco gov are purely diplomatic gestures at this stage...if india doesnt pay up then it will go elsewhere.
- new projects generally require huge capex and its difficult to raise money for projects at the moment...this gives minemakers a big advantage
- if china keeps export tariffs high for fert they will continue squeezing the sub-continent. I think india understand more than anyone the need to secure supply quickly now before a crisis develops...they will be more aggressive next year and year after as their population increases.