Moppy, I always look at the potential. The bare minimum is $3mtpa or 1c EPS and a sp of 15c. But if you look at the plant capacity of 2mpta and consider that DDW has a very large number of cutomers of their own in China then the plant cpacity will be used up pretty quickly. I understand that the aggregate makes up >95% of the finished product so 2mtpa will require less than 100kt of Kaocem. We can produce that easily. It will not take a large amount of time to be selling 2mtpa and at $150/t generating $300mpa. Our share would be $150m and hence about an EPS of $1. If you look beyond your nose this will be happening in the near future as DDW is ready to go now and we have plenty of Kaocem stored o/s.
Of course this all assumes that Kaocem is really that good. All the research and users I have spoken to say that this is the case. I am taking a leap of faith but unless all these independant people have been telling me porkies then it is going to work. By the end of the year and with CRH and other clients using the product as well, MSC will be a totally different company.
Moppy, I always look at the potential. The bare minimum is...
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