Haha this has gone a little off the rail, everyone here is speculating this and that, management misrepresented this, management don't know what they're doing, management didn't see these mistakes in previous studies how??.
Even companies that people can't seem to get enough of have been here, Tesla had the debacle with top gear when they were first going on their sales campaign in Europe, look at them now. Only recently oversubscribed a 1.5billion dollar unsecured bond (junk bond).
Remember a lot of the institutions that get onboard only justify investing in ASX 300, so when something like this sours they're forced to run for the hills and advise their buyers that it's crap.
I think people need to stop asking how and ask why this could have happened and then look at what has happened as of late, after the crash. If they do they'll probably come to the conclusion I have, acquire more.Even one of the board members seems to think so with an investment of $70,000. And this is only a guess, but I would think he is not trying to fool us when the sp sentiment is this negative. If management are correct in saying what they've said during the conference then the fault lies with the US hospitals and not with management and it also makes sense of all the questions. Perhaps the difference in requirements makes the model a little less accurate but the study with US parameters yielded satisfactory results when conducted here in Aus, and something we all learnt from the Aus trails was that the model would improve significantly as more patients were enrolled.
So I'm with Chris Ntoumenopoulos buy more. If it works at these rates you're buying into a company that has the potential to make 50 million profits in the first year of commercialisation at a price at least 44 times lower than where it could be after commercialisations.
Let's do a little bit of math 75 million (telehealth visits 2014) of which -let's take the lower percentage for resp issues - 30% are respiratory a product like RAP will need to be used and at the $10 rate that's $225,000,000 of revenue.
(slide 10 of presentations).
Tech stocks to me are currently over valued and RAP may very well be when it becomes commercial and starts producing profits. So let's look at the average P/E ratio of our sector in america, let's say it's 60 and that's conservative (Assuming here that we're a healthcare product, [2]). With a $50,000,000 profit the value of Rap will be $3Billion US. If we take software (system application)[2] into example we will be valued at US $25 billion. At the current exchange rate that's $3.14 a share and $26.2 a share respectively.
So again I don't know about you but I see the current rate as a real big discount. This thing could crash and burn there is risk, but so is everything in life and the potential reward is much much higher than the potential loss.
If the odds of success of this company was a flip of a coin would you take 44 times your gamble. A game of roulette gives you a 3% chance of winning off a number and a payout of 35 times. I believe rap has a good shot of success and think it's far more probable than roulette or a coin toss.
I'm not a fortune teller, if I was my fortunes would be less dear. Like many of you I lost a lot of money when the stock tanked. I had profited half a mil and now I'm in the red. But I swallowed my emotions and bought another large parcel.
Maybe the best decision for many of you is to stay away from these forums and do your own research and conclude if you want to be apart of this or if you want to run for the hills with the institutional investors.
[1]
https://www.resapphealth.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/1690409.pdf
[2]
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/pedata.html
