AVE 0.00% 0.3¢ avecho biotechnology limited

look at these numbers.

  1. 10,009 Posts.
    Hi Guys, Thought I might run some numbers for the fat and cellulite reduction cream. Here is the link to a scientific paper relating to AOD9604. Notice that the authors either work for POH now or MBP and are available to consult. So when POH did this deal they had extensive knowledge of the science.

    http://endo.endojournals.org/cgi/content/full/142/12/5182

    The purpose of this post is to assess the risk reward. The numbers are wild guesses but give an idea off the returns available here,if this is successful.

    Rule of thumb is about 2 in 10 Drugs make it through to market. Thats a 20 percent chance. With AOD9604 plenty of work has previously been done.(WL Bioshares loved this one years ago).

    If 20 % of the population are overweight or obese in USA,Canada, Australia,Great Britian that would equate to roughly 100 Million people. Being Western countries we could assume they can pay $10 a week for cream. That is one Billion a week in sales. Blockbuster territory for sure. $50 Billion a year in sales. Statins do 60 Billion a year.

    Being fat is much more prevalent than High Cholesterol, becaused Fat covers all age groups not just males over 45 and females over 55.

    So if POH kept 50% of sales revenue after costs and sending some royalties to MBP. They are left with $25 Billion in revenue. Divide the revenue by 670 million shares you get earnings of $37 a share. With an industry average P/E of 19.9% that gives a shareprice of $736.

    The returns on getting this right are 736 to 1. One thousand dollars invested today could bring you $736,000 of course I could be wrong and it could be twice that amount. Or if half of the amount it will still be a 368 bagger.

    Would you put down $1000 to win $736000 with 1 in five chance of winning. This product could be for sale in second half 2010.

    Just some numbers for you to think about. Who would have thought Microsoft or Apple would have made so much all those years ago.

    Cheers PoS.

 
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