Thanks Mose, good to hear your thoughts. I'll throw my view in (and I will pretend I'm IG, with the estimate that B4M is worth $1b).
* We currently own 25%, which would be worth (based on the above scenario), $250m. If the BBs offered to buy out our share for $300m, I would reject it. Why? Even if we lose the M&DC case, we will still retain 25% of B4M, and especially because production is soon to commence.
* So, what if the BBs were to offer me $1.1b? I'd be questioning why they are offering me over 100% of the value that I currently own 25% of, especially given that there is a M&DC case pending against them (BBs). My initial reaction would be a sign of guilt from the BBs, therefore, would have far greater satisfaction taking them to court and winning, which I (IG) strongly believe will happen. So, with that in mind, and given the fact that we (IG & BBs) are two powerful egos, I would happily reject that offer.
* Receiving an offer anywhere between 26%-99% is a nothing offer. I would reject anything in this range, mainly because of points 1 & 2 above. Absolutely there is risk in this. If they were to offer $750m (or 75%), and I rejected it and lost the M&DC case, then I'll end up with terrible egg on my face. But, why would I be continuing this case if I didn't think I was going to win?
Hopefully any newcomers that read the AGS forum don't get blinded by dollar signs when they read posts about a takeover. If we win back 100% I will have a different opinion, but as it currently stands, ie court cases, alliance with ITOCHU, etc, IMHO, a takeover is higly unlikely. As always, do your own research.
Hopfully this post is seen in the view that it is intended; a neutral, unbiased opinion. I don't expect everyone to agree with me, I just hope that those that don't can give me the respect and respond appropriately.
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Thanks Mose, good to hear your thoughts. I'll throw my view in...
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