look on the bright side

Losses are now capped at 4.5c per option and 34c per share!

How low can GDN go!

IF this does prove the goods, like the directors feel it is likely, this represents the bargain of the year.

IF it doesn't then little downside is left.

This selloff is not based on fundamentals but rather sentiment. Who would have believed the severity of the plunge in the SP in response to them providing a pretty picture of them burning off the sump oil from the truck on site without releasing details of how fast it was draining out or how much they had loosened the sump plug.

I hold what I already have for possible CGT savings - though as Sue suggests, it will be a great buy when/if they do announce if it is commercial when you will likely still get in below 45c - with potential to ride it to over a dollar.

A great way to do this if you can't watch the markets constantly is to set a buy gain (or whatever your broker calls the equivalent to a comsec "buy gain") set at 45c to hopefully pick some up on the way up as it is only going to 45c from here on very good news.



The next "no news" announcement will be Friday when they annouce the workover rig is delayed for......

TWO WEEKS! because the truck broke down, having had the sump oil drained to beef up the "gas" flare last week.

No problem though - we've been waiting "another two weeks" for six months now!

I still feel this has too good a chance of being commercial enough to claw back the SP above my break even (now needing just over 10c and increasing by the day) to consider selling at this price, however if I had known what was to happen at over 60c I would have been out.

I can't see too many option holders converting at these prices due to high risk of the price falling below 30c while the option conversion is being processed. This is a major problem for the company as liquidity must be tight and even if this is commercial they have several months and lots of dollars to go before a pipeline and plant can be up and running to actually provide some cashflow. Any broker underwriting of options will be on terrible terms (maybe 15-17c per share) which will cause dilution with little cash return and IMO the company would be better off waiting for results, and if commercial flow is found negotiating a placement at a better price - or even a loan (if results are very good).

Best hope in the short-term is that the 20 foot of oil is outstanding - say a couple of hundred barrels a day or more - as this can be produced and transported by tanker immediately to provide cashflow - though the vibes I got from the report at the time of the oil show does not give me great confidence of this.