Probably a great choice for a first stock. Keep up choosing ones like this and you may have a very well funded retirement.
The current SP imo is backed by the expectation of success by RIO and at Minyari. Close to a fact probably.
There haven't been any changes in the resource base since the last drilling campaign so the price rise (other than by external factors POG etc) has been due mainly to expectation of drilling at Minyari and the recent release of the IP survey. A statement open to debate so DYOR.
Usually when an Ann, as expected as the first drill result for Minyari, is due the SP does a bit of anticipation so the rise from 4-6c may be just this plus some POG etc.
I am working on some documentation to back up what I will write here (about Calibre North) and post it tomorrow.
(deep breath) IMO some SP estimates depending on levels of success. Insert your own numbers ....
Minyari full success (8/11 holes) good - maybe 15-20c .
Minyari reasonable success 4-6 holes good - maybe 8-10c
Minyari Dusters - 3-4c and wait for Citadel
Drilling at Citadel is probably the key to AZYs aspirations overall as some posters have already said (?B4girl).
Calibre North is looking good but IMO the grade will be the important issue. Deeper drilling success anywhere near or above 2g/t Au eq (Bulk grade) will probably put a rocket under AZYs SP given what is already known in the first 100m under the cover.
Since the results at Minyari will give the starting price for any estimate of SP any subsequent estimation becomes more meaningless. What can be guessed at is the level of success but not much more. [Failure is not an option to be considered - but it exists]
Dual success at Minyari and Calibre North (or wherever the first drilling is at Citadel) then 50c is IMO not a wild estimate and possibly conservative. It will depend on how Mrs Market is at the time.
Multiple success at the Citadel IP targets and elsewhere on AZYs Telfer ground and dreams of another Sirius come to mind over the next 1-2 years.
Left field events affecting estimated SP are excluded from the above. Too many are possible.
All the above is to be taken as musings on AZY's share price which only hindsight will show whether they were lucky enough to be close or not.
As Always DYOR
AZY Price at posting:
6.4¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)