Hi all,Its been a while...so I've reflected on the past.On 11...

Hi all,

Its been a while...so I've reflected on the past.

On 11 Jan 2018 (nearly 4 years ago), I posted....

".....Depending on how aggressive their marketing and pricing strategy is, I (and subject to some discussion with management/analysts) believe they could readily attain a US ACV of US$80-100m pa within 4 years; eclipsing my estimated Australiasian ACV of A$75-80m.It is pure personal preference (not a science) in assigning valuation multiples to revenues and EBITDA....so I'll let you do yours.Yet my models are suggesting a valuation range of A$670-830m within 2 years. A$1.60-A$2.00 fully diluted...."

With this weeks announcement, I dusted off my old NEA (nearly 15 years in the making) model. While my forecast 4 years ago is out by 15-18 months, there is actually only a very small difference in my estimated and NEA's actual ACV growth numbers over the past 4 years (the power of compounding). The main point here is that as NEA and its business model matures, the statistical risk to modeling NEA outcomes reduces, making NEA a lower Beta and less cyclical holding for instos as time goes on...a core desire for most insto holdings.

The slightly revised model is now looking at a Jan 2026 (4 years) estimated ACV range of US$245-US$280m (approx 25-29% pa avg growth) as a 'Base Case'....not a 'best case' so I feel there may be some risk to the upside.
2 year price range target...FOR ME (please do your own reseach)...is now A$3.25 -$4.10.

A 50%+ pa SP growth potential from here its still more than worthy of respect; NEA will maintain its place in my portfolio,

Cheers,