Had another thought on the higher volume and the good bounce....

Had another thought on the higher volume and the good bounce. Most likely its as we have all discussed ... but the other thing happening during the last week (by my estimation) is that Tintsfield could be coming online any day. The weather in the area has been much drier so they would have been able to complete the water handling facilities which was the hold-up. The half-yearly said "Tintsfield production testing due to start in March". Could be encouraging some to buy.

Regardless of whether this is the case or not, when Tintsfield does begin to flow we might see some interest returning also. To get an idea of timelines to possible announcements/updates I looked back at BW West. At the AGM on 25 November 2009 ESG announced that BW West had just commenced production testing. On 15 December in an OB they said it was producing over 4,000 Bowpd (barrels of water i.e. good water flows) and that gas flow was coming on strongly. Then December 22 they announced gas flows of in excess of 2MMSCFD. So 4 weeks from start to a VERY significant gas flow.

Now the Hoskisson seam is both thicker (10m compared to 5m) and its a different coal although similarly fractured so it might take a little longer to achieve good flows. So if its starting any day or has started then we are probably looking at 4-6 weeks so late April. That's not to say that we won't get an update earlier.

H