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pintohoo

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30/08/21

23:12

Post #: 55695881
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Originally posted by Lapdog ↑

@pintohoo; I've now run several variations of those hospitalisation projections.

The optimistic one that projects the lowest totals assumes no future issues with hospital capacity accompanied by significant improvement due to rising vaccination levels [it uses a seven day moving average for daily number changes]:

August 30th - 840 hospitalisations
September 21st - 1,538 [maximum level]
October 31st - 197

The opposite to that scenario is way too confronting for this forum and is massively worse than what I published earlier.

It's therefore my gut feeling that NSW will need some sort of major remedial intervention by no later than October 1st - without which even increasing vaccination levels will not prevent catastrophic outcomes of the kind that impacted major US cities.

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Thanks

the unknown to me is at what point does the hospital system stop coping?

When I looked- I think there was just over 20,000 beds all up in NSW

I assume in the pandemic - normal loading would be lighter

no pissheads fighting in pubs on Friday night, far less car accidents, postponed elective surgery, less flu

so - how many beds that lot leaves for Covid??

I’ve no idea.

that said - if it’s anything like it was here - the shit will hit the fan most probably
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