APT (ASX) Looking for sensible explanation

Originally posted by andrewjh: ↑

Yes welcome to the plaything of the big traders.

But... I also think this is par for the course for a stock whose price is mainly built on assumptions about the future.
There's not really a floor to how badly wrong things can go.
Likewise hard to put a reasonable limit on how well things can go.

Bluescope steel (my other favourite stock) has essentially a floor under its price - its net asset value is $12.30 and it makes (currently) over $1 billion per year. So just those 2 numbers alone limit your downside... while the upside is limited by the fact that its not in an easily scalable industry. FWIW I think it is dramatically undervalued and so has upside in terms of catching up to fair value, which is probably about double its current price.

But APT can swing between $10 and $20 per share because... if it doesn't work out, it's not even worth $10 a share. So any external event that punctures its growth assumptions is kryptonite.
Likewise if it does really work out, it could be enormous.

But the share price is not really tied to anything concrete in terms of present valuations, so it's almost pure momentum.

2 weeks ago momentum was up because momentum was up.
1 week ago momentum was down because it was down until it was up because it was up.

Momentum stocks will gravitate towards the next news.
Senate news - possible downside surprise... drops in advance, rises on the news.
Earnings - possible upside surprise: rises in advance, drops on the news.

Now there's no news on the horizon. Nothing to aim at. So just momentum for momentum's sake.

$17 before senate report and $17 after senate and earnings.. both just numbers built on assumptions built on assumptions.

Comparing the 2 numbers and asking why ignores the fact that neither number is close to rational.
Hopes, fears, and greed drive the price at the moment.

In 5 years time this will be worth either very big dollars or very few dollars, and those who buy now and hold will have their assumptions proved right or wrong.
In the short term this is a capricious or gracious god depending on what other irrational people decide to do with it.

Short term at your peril.
Long term at your analysis.
Play your way.

Expand

So just to be clear - you are happy to assign a value of intangible assets or goodwill to Bluescope, but not to Afterpay?

Not saying you are right or wrong, but if you are going to compare 2 completely different companies I think that the valuation formula needs to be consistent.

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