That's the approach this guy took:
https://blog.usejournal.com/afterpay-the-10x-thesis-eb275e04a1dIn 2016 the average revenue per user was $26.
2017 - $36
2018 - $80
Customer retention rate at time that was written: 90%
"With this information, and adding in the risk free rate of return (~2%) you get a lifetime value (calculated like a terminal value in an NPV) of $674."
Multiply that by their current user numbers (3.5 million yeah) = 674 x 3.5 million = $2.36 billion
That's the lifetime revenue of the
current user base. Not factoring any future growth.
But user base is currently doubling every year.
So in the next 12 months, at this rate, an additional Lifetime Revenue pool of the same size will be added.
So by Feb 2020, projected Lifetime revenue looks more like = $4.72 billion
If the growth rate was to continue into the 12 months after that, you're doubling that again.
So Feb 2021, projected Lifetime revenue = $9 billion
That's at linear growth... growth seems to be going hyperbolic which means all those figure are probably understatements.
Now we haven't factored in costs. But put it this way.
In 24 months time, the customer base will be worth double the current market cap in revenue terms.