Mollybendium
When I wrote that building a bottom-up model was not useful, I meant not useful to me, because I had no plans to either sell or buy FRI shares. Anyhow, I have not been able build a bottom-up model, because even if I were able to postulate reasonable property sales metrics for each of the next four years starting with FY2016, other metrics bounce around so much, that I would not be able to guesstimate NPAT with any confidence.
In figures provided below, you can see how various one-offs and accounting treatments make guesstimating FRI's reported NPAT difficult. In the figures below, the percentage for Cost of Sales relates to Property Development Sales. The other percentages in those columns related to Revenue Total. Notice the following:
- A large increment in Management Fees boosted Revenue Total in FY2015.
- A similarly large increase in Management Fees is included in Other Income in FY2015, and I do not know why they were not in one spot. The Management Fees increase summed to $8,137,806.
- The “Advertising expense” was low for bonanza FY2014 – suggesting one may have to derive an estimate of that line item from sales commencement information, not settlements-expected information.
- The value of “Accounted Investees (net of income tax)” increased substantially. That may explain the circa $5m of tax offsets in FY2015.
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 0 FY2015 FY2014 FY2013 1 Property Development Sales 67,618,486 259,947,369 123,310,250 2 Rental Income 15,290,902 13,569,804 12,229,593 3 Supervision and Mngmnt fees 6,451,019 1,730,657 870,297 4 Revenue Total 89,360,407 275,247,830 136,410,140 5 Cost of sales -59,638,825 88.20% -204,631,575 78.72% -84,553,069 68.57%6 Gross Profit 29,721,582 33.26% 70,616,255 25.66% 51,857,071 38.02%7 8 Other income [incl another Management Fee} 4,511,357 1,812,865 3,723,306 9 Loss on disposal of investment property -828,628 10 Loss on disposal of shareholdings -614,390 11 12 Loss on disposal of property, plant & equipment -582 31,778 13 Administrative expenses -7,588,853 -7,228,044 -5,898,731 14 Advertising expenses -1,680,183 -741,461 -2,016,314 15 Other expenses -6,891,635 -5,010,837 -4,515,322 16 Results from Operating Activities 16,629,250 18.61% 59,448,196 21.60% 43,181,788 31.66%17 Finance income 4,912,617 3,417,023 3,685,360 18 Finance costs -3,236,964 -3,616,022 -3,434,672 19 Share of profit/(loss) of Equity Accounted Investees (net of income tax) 13,394,563 -577,302 1,128,023 20 Profit before Income Tax 31,699,466 35.47% 58,671,895 21.32% 44,560,499 32.67%21 Income tax expense -5,580,669 -17,857,793 -13,003,551 22 Profit for the year 26,118,797 29.23% 40,814,102 14.83% 31,556,948 23.13%23 24 Income tax percentage 17.60% 30.44% 29.18%
The most recent EUROZ analysis on FRI's webpage may be useful.
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
97.0¢ | 97.5¢ | 96.5¢ | $138.9K | 143.2K |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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97.5¢ | 42905 | 2 |
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1 | 1157 | 0.970 |
2 | 9119 | 0.965 |
4 | 16572 | 0.960 |
1 | 1144 | 0.955 |
2 | 16224 | 0.950 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.975 | 42905 | 2 |
0.980 | 127588 | 2 |
0.990 | 54902 | 3 |
1.000 | 29958 | 4 |
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