Past 12 months, stock is down -62% and short positions have reduced -79%. As long as you blame shorters you will continue to be bewildered at the sell down. Once you consider valuation, all becomes clear. IGO's earnings have collapsed in line with the lithium price, and the fact that as the lowest-cost producer they should have been the one pushing on with production to put the other guys out of business (and thus fortify their own position). Instead, Tianqi as the controlling party was slowing down production - in part because the ore from IGO goes into a refinery to make hydroxide which only has a 6-month shelf life... so they didn't want to stockpile (as people with ore can do). So this absurd scenario occurred where the lowest-cost producer was forced to act like a marginal producer when they should have theoretically been fine to power ahead - using volume to try and counter the falling margins.
The good news is that it is approaching the PT of $5.50 which Canaccord's Hoff slapped on it in mid-March when it was trading around $7.50 mark. Someone will see value eventually but the latest WoodMac/MS report out yesterday won't be helping sector sentiment: https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/dont-hold-your-breath-lithium-investors-unless-you-can-do-it-for-4-years
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Last
$4.89 |
Change
-0.110(2.20%) |
Mkt cap ! $3.703B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$5.10 | $5.12 | $4.89 | $24.02M | 4.869M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
7 | 24489 | $4.89 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$4.91 | 5000 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
6 | 23489 | 4.890 |
17 | 76977 | 4.880 |
4 | 239624 | 4.870 |
5 | 34062 | 4.860 |
7 | 34394 | 4.850 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
4.910 | 5000 | 1 |
4.920 | 9533 | 3 |
4.930 | 2989 | 2 |
4.940 | 55887 | 3 |
4.950 | 40003 | 4 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 10/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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IGO (ASX) Chart |