Looking for the bottom, page-88

I'm not sure if you know this or not, but a lot of these brokers and analysts don't actually set the commodity price assumptions.

For example, Citi have a commodities desk that will set the long term price assumptions for Iron Ore. The analyst for FMG will not actually be allowed to use their own assumptions about the IO price, effectively leading them to a Buy, Hold or sell recommendation almost by default on FMG.

For those brokers with no commodiites desk, they may use a Woodmac for example, Factset etc etc. Therefore more often then not their recommendations on commodity stocks can be slow and or way off the mark.

These notes are therefore pretty ureliable given the correlation between spot commodity and expected commodity prices and the performance of these stocks. They are really only useful to set some financial analysis based on a commodity price deck that may or may not be reasonable.