(Note: this post contains no new information and is intended as...

(Note: this post contains no new information and is intended as a summary about what is know about the Carynginia)

By the end of February those of us who have been patient holders - or smart accumulators - of NWE stock can expect to be rewarded with news about the highly anticipated results of one of the primary targets of the Arrowsmith-2 campaign, the Carynginia Formation.
This is the second zone to be tested. While fraccing was done from deep to shallow (HCSS to Kockatea), flow testing will be conducted from the top down. Even though the Kockatea showed some encouraging results (and further results are expected in the next two weeks), the real treasure lies a little deeper.
Early modelling by Norwest based on a 60 metre Carynginia interval indicated the potential for up to 3TCF of gas within EP413 alone. One of the indicators used in this estimate was no doubt the 4MMscf/d unstimulated flow of the Carynginia in Arrowsmith-1 (400 m away from Arrowsmith-2). The estimate may have been conservative, as the drillbit later showed that the depth of the interval at Arrowsmith-2 is actually 250m.
Fraccing was done at the end of August, gas was produced almost immediately and brief flow tests were carried out. Norwest: "While a gas rate was not confirmed due to limited flow back time, it remains a highly prospective shale gas target with gas production to surface, good total organic content values and other important positive indicators." In addition, the rock contains a high volume of quartz that increases the brittleness index of the rock, thus increasing the ability of hydraulic fracture stimulation to create a complex fracture network.
This is perhaps one of the reasons that Norwest appears confident that fraccing this zone will produce results even without fully understanding the local topology, as no mention is made of a requirement for further 3D seismic data for the Carynginia (unlike both the Kockatea and the HCSS).
I am holding on to my hat for the flow test result announcements at the end of February....