VYS 0.00% 33.0¢ vysarn limited

De-risks the Coy going forward by full commissioning... I do not...

  1. 1,149 Posts.
    De-risks the Coy going forward by full commissioning... I do not think so due to the fact that we have given notice that they are 'greatly exceeding' production targets during the upgrade. Already de-risk IMO.

    Very low risk in my mind- yet Full Commissioning ticks off the box for OS Exec for all ALU Coys worldwide to come and see Aussie Plant in action. BOOM time for active signings after full commissioning. For my money it is not about risk- it is about how fast we can make OS expansion happen.

    Plus as I have stated all last year- I would not be surprised that Alcoa already has a confidential conditional contract in place based on Full Commissioning of Plant 1.

    No way will we be on the poorer side of 1.5 after commissioning IMO. Yet it is also possible that an Alcoa deal will come before Full commissioning in Feb and I am wrong in regards to conditional contract.

    Not having a conditional contract in place by Alcoa is risky for Alcoa... as other ALU Coys will come along and push up our reprocessing prices due to supply\demand quotient. I would bet Alcoa Exec are smart enough to lock in $300 processing fee for many years to come. If not the fee could easily fly to $500 per ton IMO.

    $300 seems far too cheap... give us $500 and they can keep the commodities extracted. This is debateable as extracted commodites could be worth over $400 per ton.

    Anyway the MHM Exec's are not stupid- they know how to play the game and the best way forward. Look forward to seeing these Exec's in the BRW Top 200 in 2011.

    Cheers JAY
 
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