Hi everyone,
Interesting to read people reactions and responses today after the FY 17 report. The report has some interesting information but (for me at least) the key really is the outlook from this point, as explained below.
First though, a recap. Over a year ago, Admedus presented this figure (on 11/7/16) whilst in a trading halt at 35 c.
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Then 2 weeks later announced raising $10M at 33c.
I was more than a bit annoyed at the time with the perceived pump and CR, mainly because there was not a rights issue attached for loyal long term shareholders (ah the benefit of hindsight when a year later you can fill your boots at 25). But you need to deal with the way the market is structured right. At the end of the day the new management were presumably acting in the best interests of the existing shareholder by trying to raise money at the highest valuation possible?
So from this point, todays announcement has demonstrated that there has been a miss on guidance given above. From profitability in FY 18 (whatever number you can interpret on a 3D chart with no y-axis label like EBIT, EBITDA, NPAT), to "financial break even in the last quarter of calendar year 2018 with the expectation of being profitable for the full calendar year 2019". It is a miss on guidance lets all face it (including AHZ management!), even after accounting for the change in reporting years.
HOWEVER.....
...since then the financial turnaround has been pretty damn good, eclipsed only by the promises that were made! There has been an amazing turnaround on almost every measure, even though at the end of the day we are still not profitable. This is (for me) the reason for sticking around - the metrics have changed towards the positive, even though there might have been some "irrational exuberance" (with a subtexted motivation) in July last year.
Provided the company doesn't need to raise money within the current parameters (and that is still an 'if') I'm not too concerned about market pricing. It will catch up in a year, or two - value eventually catches up with quality. I'm hoping though that this question is clearly answered in the upcoming webinar (please Wayne).
Then again - maybe now that we have the money we need to break through, we are in underpromise-overdeliver regime for the first time (ever) so a conservative forecast might be the modus operandi..... ah the conundrum!
