Looking Forward

Amidst the dreck that one usually finds on the Cdn. equivalent of HotCopper, Stockhouse, one sometimes finds a small gem. Of late, I have been pontificating long and loud about my displeasure over the latest fiasco, the bot-deal at an absurd $C2.09 or whatever per share.

Presented hereunder, a reasoned response by one Esther1 on Stockhouse, apropos a bitter comment by myself:

RE:Cash smash

Okay,here we go Templetooth2. Little more extensive but similar thoughts.Would have been tough without all the cash. Bright side is things look alot better next year, even without Didipio, which I am getting slightly moreoptimistic on.

Assumptions
gold production in 2nd half 2020 lowest range at 155,000 ounces
AISC in 2nd half highest range at 1250
Gold production in 2021 350,000 ounces which is 50,000 below guidance
AISC of 1100 which would be higher than what would be expected with start lowcost Martha
Gold price averages 1850 throughout time periods.
All other non capital/non AISC costs average 43 million per 6 months asper 1st half F/S
Capital costs for remainder of 2020 15 million per month
Capital ( non substaining for 3 projects in 2021 - Haile 110, Macraes 10 andWaihi 55
59,400 calls exercised 2nd half 2020 at 1409US
48,000 ounces need subtracted in seconf half 2020
40,000 ounces need subtracted 2021
126,500 US realized share offerring and will be fully oversubscribed % takenout for fees
8/28 forward sale of 77 million US

105 million cash balance 8/27 + 77 + 126.5 = 308.5 million
add 59,400 x 1409 + 47600 x1850 =171.7 - 155000 x 1250 = - 22 million
22 million cash loss + 4 months x 15M + 43M = 125 million reduction incash

start 2021 cash 183.5 million
310,000 x 750 = 232,500 margin - 86M other exp - 175 capital needs = 261
end of 2021 year cash position 155 million.

Not great but this is using pretty bad assumptions, no Didipio and lot of Hailecapital expenditure done. Also all bad hedges and forward sales completed. AlsoDipidio maintenance costs are used throughout