looking forward, page-16

Hi Newjo - Thanks for the report. I don't think there is too much difference between my view and the Mayne report. Just about every company with debt concerns has been marked down dramatically the last few months. Some will be justified, others will not. I hope TIM is in the latter group, but as the report identifies, the terms of the debt are a bit of a mystery. If their banks get sqeamish and pull the plug, can they realise enough from their assets to make a difference?

As the report identifies, there are some concerns that they overpaid for some of their land. Now is probably not the best time to try and sell it either. I also believe they would have difficulty raising money by selling their water rights, and not sure that is even the best way to go. That would be something I wouldn't give up easily. It would be interesting to see what a water fund would look like and how it might help cash flow. The news of the timber sale a couple of days ago gave me some hope though that a good price could be acheived for land even today.

In response to their future prospects, if they can make it through the next year, I'd say they are quite good. I don't think agribusiness will ever be spectacular, but it can be decent. I heard an interview with Sol which was recorded back in mid 2007 which gives me more reassurance about TIM and their move more into agribusiness. He points out that on average the returns in the industry are not that high, but that the top quarter of companies make a return that is competitive across most sectors. Starting from such a low share price today, the returns over the next 5-10 years should stand up quite well.

My assessment is that TIM has been 'unfairly tarred'. But I am not certain enough to place a big bet on it. TIM and TIMPB make up about 6% of my portfolio right now, and TIM has been far and away my biggest loser (TIMPB is doing okay with the big dividend I picked up in March). I do like their prospects enough that I am still considering moving more over to either TIMPB or TIMG I wish I had pulled the trigger last week when you could still get TIMG for about $11.

Best of luck.