GTP great southern limited

Here is the latest view on GTP, GTPGA and GTPGB from The...

  1. 512 Posts.
    Here is the latest view on GTP, GTPGA and GTPGB from The Intelligent Investor
    Our positive recommendations on TREES2 and TREES3 have been expensive mistakes. But, with the company still having a decent chance of survival and these securities offering spectacular returns if it does, now is not the time to be selling out.

    GTPGA last traded at $19.50 an 80% discount to face value.
    Using my calcs above you're buying 950 shares (amount of shares unknown as depends on VWAP) for $19.50, ie around 2 cents a share.

    While II is saying the company has a decent chance of survival the market is clearly saying something different. The question becomes who knows better.

    If you believe the that GTP will survive then clearly it is ludicrous for the company to allow the conversion of TREES2 at around current prices.

    I had a quick look at the 2008 annual report and some old notes.

    They appear to be valuing land based on DCF rather than a relative market valuation. Discounted cash flow is totally open to manipulation by changing the inputs to get your desired output.
    However, they have sold one parcel of land in Queensland and that was at an 11% discount to book value. While the directors believe that is not representative they clearly have a massive bias to say that, as writing down their land would result in covenants being broken and debt holders taking over.
 
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