looking good

Hi, All.

To those interested, my thoughts.

I bought back most of my trading parcel on the re-open today, not so much because the TI results told us much, simply because it was goodish news and took the emphasis off the quarterly. In addition the long-legged doji on Friday made me a bit twitchy that we were getting near the bottom and the open with a good rise got me thinking of the candlestick at the end of the day - even before the TI pre-open.





The pink circle is the reversal pattern/evening star after the uptrend that I mentioned a few weeks ago. The green circles are the reversal pattern/morning stars after downtrends that have resulted in SP rises, plus today's candle that makes a similar pattern. Not perfect but I'm taking notice of them nonetheless.


My thoughts have also been on F&B's previous EW analysis and, although I am a novice at best, I have tried to draw it as best I could. If I am close to right, we are at the start of the first impulse wave. I'm not going to put the house on where it may lead the SP but my fib extension draws it somewhere around 8.4c.

F&B: I would be interested to know what you think?




I have only, over the last few months, been going back over the TA I learned and didn't understand years ago and trying to re-learn some more now, so please don't trade on this interpretation- merely for discussion.


As I posted this morning, and over the last few weeks, now that the Q'ly is out of the way I do not see much to stand in the way of the SP. I still think we could see a retrace back to 5 or even 4.7 but I feel it is less unlikely after seeing the pattern from the last two days. TI wasn't a great announcement (not bad, just not great - few rock chips) but the buying after it was important. More announcements are sure to follow and, of course, the Dec Q should be extremely bullish for the SP.

Also QE2 could do something for the POG and that may (or may not) give the goldies some life. Even though the AUD has stolen some of the POG's thunder, I still think we have a long way to go in all currencies.

The "reserves" word has been mentioned lately and, whilst I agree it is somewhat an issue, it is an issue of mkt sentiment, not for the running of the FML biz. I don't think we will see 500K ozs or 1M ozs any time soon and if we have a rolling 300Koz reserve that's fine by me. As CB has stated previously, 3MH allows them to dig up and monetise the ore immediately rather than spending on JORC compliance. We don't need banks so reserves are not as important to FML as it is to some other goldies. Slow and steady increase with commensurate production increases will have an effect on mkt sentiment - it just might take time. See updated reserves chart.




To summarise, I think we turned the corner today and the risk of missing out on buying lower - for me at least - has switched to a risk of missing out on solid med and LT gains.

All above just my opinion - DYOR.


Cheers,

C12