c k locke analyst report june 06 all came true
Share Price: $0.22 Sector: Materials and Oil & Gas Recommendation: Speculative Buy Analyst: Enrico Mattiaccio KEY ASX DATA Price of Shares (FPO) $0.22 Number of Ordinary Shares 135,674,704 Market Cap ($) 29,848,435 Listed Options 32,633,433 Unlisted Options 23,250,000 12 Month Volume 151,850,275 12 Month Price Range $0.12 - $0.275 12 month Target $1.00 - $1.50 Risk High Liquidity Risk Low Project Risk High Location Risk Low/Medium Source: GDN SUBSTANTIAL SHAREHOLDERS Baselink Investments Pty Ltd 4.94% Masterline Nominees Pty Ltd 4.94% Westyle Holdings Pty Ltd 4.86% Silver Knight Holdings 2.40% 4 Australia Pty Ltd 2.21% 20 largest share holders = 34.10% Source: GDN DIRECTORS Richard Sciano Managing Director John Trevor Hasleby Exploration Director (exec) Lewis George Cross Director (Non-exec) COMPANY SECRETARY Peter Campbell Ruttledge Company Secretary Source: GDN Source: GDN - AFSL: 222440 AC N:081 957 271 2 Company Background and Projects in Summary Golden State Resources Limited (GDN) principal activity is minerals and oil and gas exploration. The Company is primarily focused on natural gas projects located in the USA and gold projects located in the Eastern Goldfields region of Western Australia. GOLDEN EAGLE PROJECT (EARNING 83.3%- EQUITY, OPERATOR) The Golden Eagle prospect is located in the Four Corners region of the USA, in the south-eastern part of Utah. GDN anticipates the prospect may hold up to 3 TCF of gas equivalent with a mid-target of approximately 440 BCF plus liquids with an assessed probability of success set at over 19.5% by the company’s geologists. With GDN’s equity of 83.3% in the Golden Eagle prospect; GDN believes the company can potentially offer great leverage of success. A mid-case potential discovery of 440 BCF of gas would equate to a significant move to GDN’s share price on the ASX. A minimum case of 50BCF currently is potentially economic. Even based on this alone it technically values the GDN share price at $1.00 to $1.50. LAVERTON GOLD PROJECT The Laverton project is located in the Eastern Goldfields region of Western Australia and is prospective for gold. It involves several prospects including – England, Kelly Well, North Well and Barnicoat. MENZIES GOLD PROJECT Located 120 km north of Kalgoorlie near the town of Menzies, the South Yunndaga Prospect lies immediately to the south and along the strike from the Lady Shenton and Yunndaga gold mines, which have produced in excess of 0.75 million ounces. GDN holds 4.5 km of the strike extension of the mineralised shear that hosts the mines. LEONORA PROJECT (100%-EQUITY) This project is located 20 km from the Western Australian Eastern Goldfields town of Leonora. GDN is involved in exploration on the Leonora project on 100%-owned project areas. THOMPSON URANIUM Located 300km south east of Salt Lake City, Utah. Previous drilling has indicated anomalous uranium and vanadium intersections, including 0.1m at 6.18% uranium oxide and 0.2% vanadium pentoxide. Source GDNSource: GDN - AFSL: 222440 AC N:081 957 271 3 Recommendation | Rational · The Golden Eagle prospect is a large un-drilled Pennsylvanian shelf-edge basement structure with anticipated potential to produce more than 3 TCF of gas. · Potential pay zones to 4,420m – the well will target 11 potential pay zones totalling 319 metres thickness within the 2,300 metre thick Pennsylvanian and Mississippian (Carboniferous) section. · Paradox Basin #1 is anticipated to enter pay section at 2,150 metres by approximately the fourth week in June 2006. The well will test 11 potential pay zones, including the deepest and largest target, the Leadville Limestone at 4,100m, concluding during July 2006. · The target structure has an area of up to 2,000 ha with 11 potential pay zones within 1,450m Pennsylvanian (Upper Carboniferous) section plus 240m of deeper Mississippian (Lower Carboniferous) carbonates, commencing from a depth of 2,600m, down to 4,400m. · GDN maintains an initial 100% interest in the well, operating through its 100% owned US subsidiary Golden Eagle Exploration LLC. Joint Venture partner Eclipse Exploration Inc has the right to back in with a 16.67% working interest after the drilling of two wells by GDN. · GDN consultants anticipate a high level of success in the first well with anticipated 80% success in achieving a minimum case of 50 BCF. 50 BCF is potentially economic. · Further success in a mid-case potential discovery of 440 BCF of gas, based on an anticipated lower success percentage level, with a potential upside to 3 TCFE for the maximum 2,000 ha case. · With a collection of overall projects and quality of advanced targets in GDN’S gas project, together with anticipated strengthening of future underlying commodity prices in oil and gas. We recommend GDN as a Speculative Buy at these current levels, with a 12 month price target of up to A$1.50 per share. Source: GDN - AFSL: 222440 AC N:081 957 271 4 Profile of Directors RICHARD SCIANO | MANAGING DIRECTOR Richard Sciano is a businessman with over 15 years experience in the property investment and building development sectors of Western Australia. He has extensive project management and commercial activities experience, both in the public and business sectors. He has been Executive Director of the company since January 2003, during which time its market capitalisation has grown from $1.8 million to $30 million. Richard is also a non-executive director of Adelaide-based ASX listed company, MGM Wireless Ltd. JOHN TREVOR HASLEBY | EXPLORATION DIRECTOR John Hasleby has over 25 years experience in the minerals exploration and mining industries. He has an operational and managerial background in exploration, development and mining for Australia and international companies. His experience has principally been in gold but he has also been involved in the search for platinoids, base metals, rare earths and uranium in Australia and overseas, resulting in the generation and exploration of a number of gold deposits that have become mines. John has a degree in Applied Science from Curtin University, Western Australia and is a member of the Australian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy and the Society of Petroleum Engineers of AIME. LEWIS GEORGE CROSS | DIRECTOR Mr Cross is a Certified Practising Accountant and principal of the firm CrossCorp Accounting, which has been established for over 24 years. He has a Bachelor of Business majoring in Accounting from Curtin University and is a Fellow of the Institute of Company Directors. Mr Cross has been involved in the mining industry for many years, as well as various other industries in the course of his work in providing accounting and business consulting services. He has had extensive experience as a company director and is currently Non-executive Chairman of Polaris Metals NL, and a director of Aspermont Limited. PETER CAMPBELL RUTTLEDGE | COMPANY SECRETARY Peter Ruttledge is a Deloitte-trained Charted Accountant with multinational experience who, for the past 20 years, has been involved in the Australian mineral exploration and mining industry. He was Company Secretary of Dalrymple Resources NL during that company’s transition from explorer to gold producer, prior to its merger with LionOre Mining International Group and is Company Secretary of a number of listed exploration companies. Source: GDN - AFSL: 222440 AC N:081 957 271 5 Profile of Technical Consultants to the Company NEVILLE HENRY | GEOLOGICAL ADVISOR Neville Henry, principal of Trend Exploration Consultants of Houston, Texas, has over 30 years broad experience with integrated oil and gas companies and independents with a record of success in acreage evaluation, acquisition and petroleum discovery. He has been involved in finding and development of over four billion barrels of oil equivalent throughout his career. Until recently, Mr Henry was International Exploration Manager for Anadarko Petroleum, a large independent US oil and gas explorer and producer, where he was successful in developing activities worldwide, developing and implementing entry strategies, evaluating new venture projects, undertaking project financial and portfolio analyses, and conducting geophysical and drilling activities. Prior to this he worked with Adobe Petroleum, Marathon Oil and began his career in 1975 Unacal Corporation. He is a member of American Association of Petroleum Geologists and the Petroleum Exploration Society of Australia. He has been assisting the company with oil and gas technical and economic evaluation, co-ordinating due diligence and planning on the Golden Eagle Prospect. GEORGE E. HANDLEY | EXPLORATION GEOPHYSICIST George has over 35 years’ experience in the exploration and development in oil and gas geophysics. George was part of the team managed by Lee Burson at The Superior Oil Co that analysed the seismic over what became Troll Field, one of the largest discoveries in the last 30 years George has stated “That there are three aspects of petroleum exploration that you need in order to find recoverable hydrocarbons. Source rock – found in shales rock in the Paradox Basin Trap Facies – containing the hydrocarbons Reservoir Rock – accumulation of hydrocarbons. GDN have abundance of source and trap rock in the prospect area. The structure provides the means to create reservoir rock, which is evident in surrounding wells. A significant prospect with strong upside”. JERRY K. TREYBIG | PROJECT MANAGER AND DRILLING CONSULTANT Jerry Treybig has more than 40 years’ experience in the oil & gas drilling field. Jerry knows how to plan for and anticipate drilling and solving problems before they are encountered, saving time and money and mitigating risk He has unparalleled experience with more than 150 completed projects including: - expertise with projects in virtually every domestic oil and gas province throughout 25 states in the USA, including Texas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Wyoming, as well as many foreign countries. He has a proven track record involving complex engineering projects, including horizontal and multi-lateral wells and many deep, high temperature, high pressure wells. Source: GDN - AFSL: 222440 AC N:081 957 271 6 MARSHALL MELNECHUK | DRILLING ENGINEER Marshall has more than 30 years’ diverse oil and gas industry experience, through the involvement of many high profile projects. One of his largest projects was building a specially designed rig and drilling the Kashagan discovery well in the Caspian Sea. The Kashagan discovery is estimated to hold 40 BBOE. From his experience Marshall believes that from the geological data shown, the well at Golden Eagle has the potential to be a significant gas discovery. With the experienced team formed he anticipates drilling a confident and successful well. Characterisation of Utah’s Natural Gas Reservoirs and Potential New Reserves The US Energy Information Administration projects the demand for natural gas in the US will grow at an average annual rate of two percent per year for the next 20 years. Utah will play a vital role, along with other Rocky Mountain states, in meeting that demand. The Rocky Mountain Region now provides 20 percent of the US natural gas according to the University of Utah Bureau of Economic Research. The US Geological Survey calculates there is 14 to 26 TCF of non-associated undiscovered gas in the Uinta Basin and 0.3 to 1.1 TCF of nonassociated undiscovered gas in the Paradox Basin. Utah has produced natural gas since 1891, though low prices, a lack of a national market for Rocky Mountain gas, and expensive drilling, have resulted in slow development of the area’s natural gas resource. The 21st century has brought dramatic changes to Utah and other Rocky Mountain gas-producing area’s with a major shift to the use of a cleaner burning natural gas in industrial and electric generation. As a result, there has been a significant increase in demand for natural gas and an associated increase in price. New pipelines have been constructed to transport the Rocky Mountain gas out of the region, which have bought more competitive US pricing to Utah’s natural gas. Drilling and production from underdeveloped gas plays and exploration for new plays, both conventional and unconventional, will result in a significant financial contribution to Utah’s economy for many decades to come. The Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research reported that nearly US$140m in royalties and taxes was paid on Utah’s natural gas production in 2001. UTAH’S BACKGROUND The majority of Utah’s natural gas reserves and future potential is in the Uinta Basin, North East Utah; lower reserves are found in the Paradox Basin in South East Utah. (Figures 1 & 2 on pages 7 & 8). Source USEIA Source: GDN - AFSL: 222440 AC N:081 957 271 7 Figure 1: Map showing the Uinta and Piceance Basins separated by the Douglas Creek Arch and the Paradox Basin, Eastern Utah and Western Colorado. The Paradox Basin formed in the Pennsylvanian and the Uinta Basin formed in the late Cretaceous. They have a small overlay. Source: GDN - AFSL: 222440 AC N:081 957 271 8 Figure 2: Generalised stratigraphic column of the Uinta, Piceance and Paradox Basins showing the distribution of petroleum system source rocks and reservoirs (modified from the AUSGS, 2002). Source: GDN - AFSL: 222440 AC N:081 957 271 9 Recent Developments in Summary 23RD MAY, 2006 · Golden State spuds first well, Paradox Basin #1, at the Golden Eagle Oil & Gas Prospect, Utah USA 2ND MAY 2006 · RC drilling planned for the 100% owned Leonora Gold Project 4TH APRIL, 2006 · Johnston Range Iron Ore Project, Western Australia – Exploration progress report 29TH MARCH, 2006 · Field work commences at Thompsons Uranium Project, Utah USA Golden State Resources (GDN) Updates · Approved a change in activities from a mineral resources exploration company to an oil and gas exploration and production company. · Consolidated the company’s issued capital with three fully paid shares being consolidated into one fully paid share, and reconstructed the issued options on a similar basis. · Issued 80,550,333 shares at 20 cents to fund acquisition and exploration of the Golden Eagle Oil & Gas Prospect in the Paradox Basin, Utah, USA. · Initiated an Iron Ore Exploration Joint Venture with Polaris Metals at Johnston Range, north of Koolyanobbing, WA. · To date has completed well permitting, site works and deep drilling rig acquisition for the first well on the Golden Eagle Oil & Gas Prospect and spudded first well, Paradox Basin #1. Golden Eagle Prospect - Onshore Oil & Gas, Utah, USA Golden State Resources completed well and access permitting, well location civil works and access road upgrading on the Golden Eagle target, Grand County, Utah and spudded the first well during May 2006. A drilling rig, a GD800 with a depth capability of 4,900m, was contracted and transported to site. The rig is supplied and operated by DHS Drilling Company of Casper, Wyoming. DHS has 15 rigs operating in onshore western USA with depth capabilities ranging from 7,500’ to 20,000’, and has ample ability to supply experienced crew and suitable backup facilities for the planned 4,420m well at Golden Eagle. The well is expected to take up to 90 days to drill and will test a target identified from seismic data and nearby wells. Source: GDN - AFSL: 222440 AC N:081 957 271 10 The target structure has an area of up to 2,000 hectares (20 km2) with 11 potential pay zones within 1,450m of Pennsylvanian (Upper Carboniferous) section plus 240m of deeper Mississippian (Lower Carboniferous) carbonates, commencing from a depth of 2,130m, down to 4,420m. Independent consultants estimate a midcase reserve target of 440 BCFE of gas, with upside to 3 TCFE (3,000 BCFE) for the maximum 2,000 ha case. Golden State holds an initial 100% interest in the well. JV partner Eclipse Exploration Inc of Denver has the right to back in with a 16.67% working interest after the drilling of two wells by Golden State. There are state, federal and overriding royalties of up to 22%. THOMPSONS URANIUM PROJECT, UTAH, USA – GOLDEN STATE 100% Golden State Resources commenced field work at the Thompsons Uranium Project during April 2006, the start of the northern spring. The permitting process for a planned exploratory drilling programme is in progress. The programme will follow previous shallower drilling completed by the USGS, which intersected uranium at grades of up to 6% U3O8. Leases and Location Golden State Resources holds 100% interest in 2,703 ha of minerals leases at Thompsons in Grand County, Utah. The project is in a high arid desert region of the Colorado Plateau, 85 km west of the city of Grand Junction and 300 km south-east of Salt Lake City. South-east Utah is an area of established uranium mining with one current operation and two further projects currently permitting for production. Abandoned Ringtail underground uranium mine at Thompsons Mining History The Thompsons district has a history of uranium mining dating back to 1911, finishing in the late 1960s. A large number of abandoned mine workings occur across the company’s leases, ranging in size from prospectors’ pits to the significant Ringtail Mine. Previous mining was underground, targeting shallow narrow high-grade ore bodies above the water table. Previous drilling by the US geological survey located widespread uranium mineralisation on the company’s tenementswith intersection grades of up to 6% U3O8. View across Golden Eagle Prospect to first well location Source: GDN - AFSL: 222440 AC N:081 957 271 11 Exploration Programme The Company’s exploration programme at Thompsons is designed to establish the presence of a broader lower grade mineralised envelope below the water table that would be amenable to the low cost, insitu leaching mining method (“ISL”). Uranium is predominantly mined in the USA by ISL, providing a cheaper, safer and more environmentally benign production method than conventional mining. Previous drilling has, in part, defined the occurrence of the ore-bearing sandstone lenses, remnants of fossil stream channels, within the Salt Wash Sandstone member. Golden State’s planned exploration will seek to: · Locate economic mineralisation within the areas of ore-bearing sandstone already defined. · Define the target sandstone beyond the areas currently defined, in particular down dip to the north beneath the overlying Brushy Basin Mudstone member (green in the following Figure) and Cretaceous rocks (pink-shading in following Figure). Geology of Thompsons Area, showing currently defined area of ore-bearing sandstone JOHNSTON RANGE IRON ORE PROJECT During the quarter, Golden State Resources concluded an agreement with Polaris Metals NL whereby Polaris has the right to earn 70% interest in the iron ore potential of Johnston Range Project tenements, 160km north of Southern Cross (Polaris 70% in joint venture with Leviathan Resources Ltd 30%). Golden State retains and continues to explore the gold, nickel and copper potential. Polaris’ 70% interest in the Johnston Range Iron Project can be earned by sole funding iron ore exploration costs through to completion of an economic pre-feasibility study, or alternatively, through the expenditure of $1,000,000, whichever is the greater. At Golden State’s option, Polaris may earn a further 10% interest through sole funding the cost of completion of a bankable feasibility study or the expenditure of an additional $1,000,000 on the tenements, whichever is the greater. Should Polaris reach an 80% interest, Golden State may elect to contribute or to be diluted pro rata; and should Polaris reach a 90% interest Golden State may elect to exchange its 10% interest for a 2.5% gross royalty. The Yilgarn Province is considered highly prospective for iron ore deposits, given its history of large-scale production, with the Koolyanobbing operation of Portman Limited currently producing direct shipping iron ore at a rate of over 5 MTPA. The Portman operation, which is based on the Koolyanobbing mine and rail infrastructure 50km north of Southern Cross, also sources ore from satellite deposits about 100km north of Koolyanobbing, such as Windarling (60Mt at 63.6% Fe) and Jackson (47 Mt at 60.9% Fe). Consulting geophysicists were engaged in the March 2006 quarter to interpret aeromagnetic data covering the project and locate areas considered prospective for large hematite deposits produced by replacement of banded iron formations. During helicopter aerial reconnaissance using a helicopter, target areas with outcrop appearance similar to massive hematite outcrops at the nearby Windarling mine were observed in places. In addition to exploring for in-situ hematite deposits Polaris is investigating detrital and channel iron targets. Source: GDN - AFSL: 222440 AC N:081 957 271 12 Chart - Natural Gas traded on NYMEX Source: Future Source The USA represents the world’s largest energy market with demand exceeding supply in the short and long term. Natural gas is currently trading at above US$6.60 per MCF. This is at a significant premium to gas sales available on the Australian market. Recent Significant Developments in Summary 23RD MAY, 2006 · Golden State Spuds First Well at the Golden Eagle Oil & Gas Prospect, Utah USA. 2ND MAY 2006 · RC Drilling at 100% owned Leonora Gold Project. 4TH APRIL, 2006 · Johnston Range Iron Ore Project, Western Australia – Exploration progress report. 29TH MARCH, 2006 · Field Work Commences at Thompsons Uranium Project, Utah USA. · Share price increase to a high of $0.27 during March ‘06 Quarter (35% increase). Source: GDN - AFSL: 222440 AC N:081 957 271 13 Risks Despite the advanced exploration status of Golden State Resources’ projects it is important to acknowledge that an investment in Golden State Resources Limited is still of a speculative nature and that investors need to be aware of the potential risk of a volatile share price due to the company’s commitment for the most part to a dual commodity and project. The projects and company will be subject to all normal long term and short term factors which affect the market. Potential investors need to be aware that normal share market risk conditions apply including commodity price, currency fluctuations, sentiment, supply and demand and general economic outlook. Normal exploration, development, risks also apply as well as operating, environmental and native title risks. CKL Authorised Representatives Murray Broun Chief Executive Officer Phone: 1300 303 874 Enrico Mattiaccio Head of Equities Phone: 1300 303 872 Darryl Yeo Associate Director Phone: 1300 855 876 Matthew Corica Manager of Research Phone: 1300 303 873 Angelo Tinelli Research Analyst Phone: 1300 303 100 Richie Polodna Senior Investment Advisor Phone: 1300 303 872 Jonathan Teh Associate Advisor Phone: 1300 303 872 Source: GDN - AFSL: 222440 AC N:081 957 271
GDN Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held