HoiIf all licences are not going to be in place until approx May...

Hoi

If all licences are not going to be in place until approx May 2013 ( Re Vintage and Agent86's previous posts), it is looking increasingly like production could not be possible before 2014.

Not a problem for longterm holders, although the dissent amongst the troops is growing.

This may become a big opportunity for the larger private holders and institutional holders to increase their stakes, at the expense of the smaller holders. With approx 400 Million 3 cent options exercisable by 30/06/2012 (PENOA). The likelyhood of the share price heading towards the exercise price (3 cents) will rise as the time value erodes towards 30/06/2012. Relentless BOTS holding the price in the current range or less, will see the value of those options fall quickly from March next year.


I will assume a large proportion of retail PENOA holders aren't holding cash for the exercise, and were going to sell the ordinary shares to do so. If the share price can be BOT traded to under 3 cents a few weeks before exercise, the PENOA's will be approx 0.3 cents IMO. This is the point when larger holders will vacuum up as many as they can, with the mindset to convert. Invariably the share price rises after the options have expired.


Now may be a good time to think ahead.

SwissB