"I guess Magadans post sums it up, drilling in progress"I don't...

"I guess Magadans post sums it up, drilling in progress"

I don't think so HS!

All Magadan's post does is confirm that Strata is drilling at the same rate it has been doing for the last 12 months.

More specifically, between its first jorc resource for Lance (in April 2010) and its 4th and most recent (June 2011), Strata drilled 908 holes with 4 rigs between April 2010 and August 2010 and 2 since then.

With those rigs and the 908 holes, Strata increased its M&I resource from 4.0m lbs (in April 2010) to 11.2m lbs (in June 2011). That is a conversion rate of 0.5m lbs per month at the Apr 2010-Jun 2011 drilling rate.

The current drilling rate is a little lower but not too much. So it is reasonable to assume that the current conversion rate - of 0.5m lbs per month - is more or less continuing.

So, now back to my query. To get a 'recoverable' M&I resource of 18-20m lbs for the expanded DFS, Strata will need 28m lbs of M&I resource, based on the existing 70% recovery rate.

It curently has 11.3m lbs (at Ross and Barber) so needs to convert another 17m lbs to meet this requirement.

At current drilling/conversion rates (of 0.5m lbs per month), this will take 34 months (from June 2011) until April 2014.

Perhaps, in Gus' language, that is still 'reasonably shortly'. But I do not think so.

That is why the expanded DFS will be mainly based on an economic model entailing assumptions and extrapolations - and only partly on drilling - as indicated by Gus in the 19 Sep interview.

How robust the model will be - given the need for extrapolation - remains to be seen.